Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
3.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:32% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:67% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:26% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:39% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:42% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:40% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:35% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:50% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:71% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:80% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:19% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 1.2% | 93.0% |
| 6-2 | 6.5% | 32.5% |
| 5-3 | 17.6% | 0.4% |
| 4-4 | 28.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 27.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 14.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 3.8% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 3.4% (+0.0%) | 3.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 3.5% (+0.1%) | 3.3% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 3.5% • Scenario: 6.5%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 3.5% • Scenario: 57.3%
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
97.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
59.0%
0.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%89.2%
<0.1%85.3%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%39.1%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%32.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.6%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
43.3%
2.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.8%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.9%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%47.2%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.8%
<0.1%45.8%
<0.1%45.2%
<0.1%44.1%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.1%
<0.1%38.7%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.2%
<0.1%36.9%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.8%
<0.1%32.4%
<0.1%32.3%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%29.1%
0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.5%
<0.1%26.5%
<0.1%25.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.0%
<0.1%21.7%
0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.4%
<0.1%20.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
28.0%
3.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%87.1%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.1%
<0.1%46.9%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.3%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.1%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%37.6%
0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%34.5%
<0.1%34.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.6%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%31.1%
<0.1%30.7%
0.1%30.5%
0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%29.1%
0.1%28.6%
0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.6%
0.3%26.7%
0.2%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.2%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%22.9%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.3%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.3%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%1.6%
0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
0.1%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2024-08-23