Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:86% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:73% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:87% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:60% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:56% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:24% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:31% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:70% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:12% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:65% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:82% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.1% | 99.0% |
| 7-1 | 1.7% | 67.4% |
| 6-2 | 9.3% | 5.1% |
| 5-3 | 23.6% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 31.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 22.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 9.2% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.9% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
70.8%
0.8%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
90.0%
<0.1%
86.2%
<0.1%
83.3%
<0.1%
82.4%
0.2%
81.0%
<0.1%
79.3%
<0.1%
75.4%
0.1%
56.6%
0.4%Any 2 losses
12.4%
5.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%80.8%
<0.1%73.0%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.1%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%52.8%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%47.7%
<0.1%46.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%11.5%
0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.0%
0.1%9.3%
0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
0.3%7.8%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
0.3%5.9%
<0.1%5.1%
0.2%3.4%
0.2%3.3%
1.3%2.4%
0.4%1.9%
<0.1%1.2%
0.9%Any 3 losses
8.4%
3.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%61.4%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%15.9%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.7%
0.2%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.8%
0.1%3.7%
0.5%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.1%
0.2%1.9%
0.3%1.6%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%Any 4 losses
8.5%
0.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%Data from 2024-08-23