Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
4.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:70% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:98% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:29% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:80% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:86% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:25% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:72% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:89% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:11% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:96% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:90% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 4.5% | 75.4% |
| 6-2 | 20.9% | 4.5% |
| 5-3 | 37.2% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 26.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 9.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
77.4%
2.8%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
94.4%
<0.1%
90.0%
<0.1%
88.9%
<0.1%
87.9%
<0.1%
85.4%
<0.1%
80.6%
0.4%
78.5%
0.6%
72.6%
1.5%Any 2 losses
12.6%
14.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%80.2%
0.2%78.7%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.5%
0.2%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
0.3%72.0%
<0.1%70.3%
0.6%67.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.2%
0.3%11.4%
0.2%11.1%
<0.1%11.0%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%10.0%
0.2%9.5%
0.2%8.9%
0.6%8.1%
<0.1%8.1%
0.4%8.1%
0.1%6.4%
0.2%6.1%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%3.4%
1.4%3.3%
4.6%2.6%
3.8%Any 3 losses
6.3%
7.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%85.2%
<0.1%79.3%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.8%
0.3%10.7%
0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
0.2%7.9%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
0.2%4.4%
<0.1%3.5%
0.6%3.1%
0.2%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.6%
2.0%2.6%
0.4%2.4%
0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
0.5%2.0%
1.6%1.8%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
4.6%
0.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%2.8%
0.2%2.6%
<0.1%2.3%
0.2%Data from 2024-08-23