Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
40.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | Win prob:99% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:37% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:99% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:96% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:63% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:40% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:96% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:95% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:92% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:88% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:77% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 13.6% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 37.8% | 66.9% |
| 6-2 | 33.2% | 5.5% |
| 5-3 | 12.7% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 2.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
4.3%Any 1 loss
80.4%
20.3%
100.0%
0.5%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
7.6%
89.9%
0.6%
88.2%
0.4%
85.0%
0.2%
84.9%
0.1%
83.7%
0.2%
77.1%
1.3%
74.3%
2.6%
58.0%
6.7%Any 2 losses
48.9%
34.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%91.2%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.8%
0.3%89.7%
1.0%87.2%
<0.1%86.3%
0.3%85.6%
0.4%85.5%
<0.1%85.0%
0.6%85.0%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%76.4%
2.3%74.8%
0.3%74.5%
0.1%74.4%
4.5%69.2%
<0.1%67.0%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.5%
11.7%55.6%
0.7%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%29.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.5%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.4%
0.1%17.5%
<0.1%16.8%
0.2%13.3%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%10.2%
0.2%9.7%
0.1%8.3%
0.3%8.2%
0.3%8.0%
0.4%7.4%
0.9%7.1%
0.6%6.4%
0.2%6.3%
<0.1%5.5%
0.1%5.4%
0.7%5.0%
2.0%2.1%
0.1%1.5%
3.9%Any 3 losses
13.5%
22.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%86.9%
<0.1%86.7%
0.1%85.3%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%76.0%
0.3%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%72.0%
0.5%69.6%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%59.6%
0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.0%
1.3%56.7%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.7%
<0.1%26.8%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.1%
0.2%21.3%
<0.1%20.9%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.7%
0.1%17.4%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%14.0%
0.3%12.2%
<0.1%10.4%
0.1%10.1%
0.2%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
0.4%9.6%
0.5%9.5%
0.2%9.5%
<0.1%8.9%
1.4%8.8%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.6%
0.6%7.5%
0.7%7.5%
0.4%7.2%
1.0%7.1%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
0.2%6.1%
<0.1%5.8%
0.2%5.3%
1.3%5.1%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.7%
3.6%4.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%1.9%
0.5%1.7%
6.8%1.5%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
7.3%
2.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.1%
0.2%10.0%
<0.1%9.6%
0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%7.0%
0.2%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
0.4%4.8%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.3%
0.1%3.1%
<0.1%1.7%
0.7%Data from 2024-08-23