Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
15.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:99% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:95% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:88% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:71% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:80% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:37% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:88% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:69% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:90% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:57% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:37% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:49% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 8.5% | 90.7% |
| 6-2 | 22.0% | 28.9% |
| 5-3 | 30.2% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 24.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 10.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 2.8% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.0%Any 1 loss
91.2%
6.5%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
99.2%
0.1%
97.0%
0.4%
95.3%
0.7%
92.9%
1.0%
92.8%
0.3%
92.3%
0.4%
88.3%
1.6%
86.9%
1.7%Any 2 losses
35.9%
18.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.3%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.3%
<0.1%95.0%
0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.3%
0.1%94.0%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%92.7%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%91.6%
0.2%90.5%
<0.1%90.4%
<0.1%89.1%
0.2%88.5%
<0.1%87.4%
0.2%86.7%
0.1%85.7%
<0.1%82.3%
0.2%76.2%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%65.1%
0.1%63.5%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.3%
0.1%53.3%
<0.1%53.1%
0.2%50.5%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.5%
0.3%45.8%
0.3%45.8%
0.4%45.7%
0.2%44.6%
0.3%44.0%
0.4%40.9%
0.1%39.0%
0.2%38.4%
0.2%36.7%
0.7%34.3%
0.4%33.6%
0.8%30.1%
0.7%29.8%
0.4%28.4%
1.2%27.5%
0.7%27.1%
0.7%26.8%
1.2%24.1%
1.8%23.9%
1.8%13.8%
2.8%Any 3 losses
25.8%
6.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%84.4%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%58.7%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.7%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.0%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.5%
<0.1%48.3%
<0.1%47.2%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.9%
<0.1%42.5%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.4%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%37.9%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.0%
<0.1%35.5%
<0.1%34.4%
<0.1%33.7%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.5%
<0.1%32.4%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%31.7%
<0.1%30.7%
<0.1%30.3%
<0.1%30.1%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.7%
0.2%27.3%
<0.1%26.8%
0.1%26.7%
0.3%26.4%
0.1%26.3%
<0.1%26.2%
0.2%26.2%
<0.1%25.2%
0.1%25.2%
0.1%25.1%
0.2%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.1%
0.2%23.9%
<0.1%23.7%
<0.1%23.6%
<0.1%23.3%
0.1%23.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.8%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.5%
0.2%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.9%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.8%
0.2%14.0%
0.4%13.7%
0.3%10.0%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.2%
0.2%1.0%
0.2%0.9%
0.3%0.8%
0.1%Any 4 losses
12.8%
1.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%Data from 2024-08-23