Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
15.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/01 | Win prob:69% | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:75% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:85% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:82% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:76% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:84% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:60% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:31% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:81% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:96% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:51% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 3.5% | 99.8% |
| 7-1 | 17.6% | 59.0% |
| 6-2 | 32.0% | 4.5% |
| 5-3 | 28.5% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 14.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 3.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.9%
1.5%Any 1 loss
65.7%
9.1%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
0.3%
99.7%
0.7%
99.7%
0.3%
79.3%
0.5%
77.2%
0.5%
70.2%
<0.1%
69.0%
0.3%
65.9%
0.4%
63.8%
1.0%
59.1%
1.5%
50.3%
3.4%Any 2 losses
25.0%
21.5%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%82.8%
<0.1%82.4%
<0.1%82.3%
0.1%81.1%
<0.1%80.3%
0.2%76.9%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.5%
<0.1%73.8%
<0.1%71.7%
0.2%67.8%
0.1%66.4%
0.1%65.9%
0.2%65.8%
<0.1%65.6%
0.5%63.8%
0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.2%
0.7%61.3%
0.2%60.6%
0.3%60.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.9%
0.2%58.6%
0.3%54.2%
<0.1%51.5%
0.8%50.8%
1.5%50.0%
<0.1%49.0%
0.6%47.9%
0.4%26.1%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%13.7%
0.2%13.5%
0.1%13.3%
0.1%12.1%
0.2%11.9%
0.3%10.6%
0.4%10.3%
0.2%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%6.8%
0.5%5.5%
0.3%5.0%
0.7%4.8%
1.2%4.5%
1.1%4.3%
0.4%3.8%
0.3%3.2%
1.0%3.1%
0.2%2.8%
0.8%2.7%
2.3%1.8%
<0.1%1.2%
3.2%Any 3 losses
13.0%
15.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%89.3%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%81.4%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.5%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.1%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.3%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%61.0%
<0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.3%
0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.3%
<0.1%58.7%
0.1%57.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%52.2%
0.1%51.9%
0.3%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.6%
<0.1%48.1%
<0.1%47.0%
0.2%44.2%
0.3%37.1%
0.1%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.7%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.6%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.4%
0.2%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.4%
0.2%10.3%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.2%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
0.1%7.4%
0.6%7.1%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%5.8%
0.2%5.7%
0.2%5.4%
0.2%5.4%
0.3%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
0.1%5.1%
0.3%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
0.2%5.0%
<0.1%4.6%
0.1%4.5%
0.1%4.3%
0.2%4.3%
0.2%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
0.5%4.1%
0.2%4.1%
0.1%4.1%
0.4%3.9%
0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
0.1%3.5%
1.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.4%
0.4%3.3%
0.1%3.1%
0.2%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
0.5%2.6%
0.2%2.4%
0.1%2.4%
0.2%2.1%
0.5%1.9%
0.2%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%0.9%
0.7%0.8%
1.5%0.7%
0.5%0.6%
0.4%Any 4 losses
9.8%
4.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.4%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.3%
0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
0.1%6.0%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.5%
0.2%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.1%
0.3%1.1%
0.2%0.8%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.3%Data from 2024-08-23