Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
42.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W34-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W48-3 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W13-12 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L34-41 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W31-13 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W41-31 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W30-15 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:92% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:63% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:72% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:96% |
Data from 2024-10-27
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 41.7% | 93.0% |
| 6-2 | 44.4% | 9.4% |
| 5-3 | 13.1% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 0.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 42.3% (-0.6%) | 43.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 40.2% (-2.8%) | 45.9% (+3.0%) | |
| 45.7% (+2.8%) | 42.8% (-0.2%) | |
| 2.7% (-40.2%) | 46.4% (+3.5%) | |
| 43.1% (+0.2%) | 42.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 43.4% (+0.4%) | 40.7% (-2.3%) | |
| 42.8% (-0.1%) | 43.0% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Massachusetts
Texas A&M
KentuckyGeorgia
Maine
VanderbiltCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
GeorgiaCCG: 46.4% • Scenario: 92.1%
Data from 2024-10-27
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
93.0%
39.6%Any 1 loss
13.2%
44.3%
93.9%
1.6%91.3%
0.4%
14.3%
23.5%
6.0%
3.4%
2.7%
15.4%Any 2 losses
11.5%
2.1%94.4%
<0.1%19.5%
0.2%15.1%
1.0%6.5%
0.1%3.2%
0.6%1.4%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27