Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L17-19 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W48-0 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W27-0 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L14-31 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L24-27 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W24-17 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W21-17 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W48-23 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:46% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:68% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:18% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:25% |
Data from 2024-10-27
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 1.4% | 4.6% |
| 6-3 | 13.0% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 37.7% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 37.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 10.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-27
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-27
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.1%) | 0.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Ohio State
Purdue
MichiganMinnesota
Michigan State
Nebraska
Washington
WisconsinCCG: 2.4% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MinnesotaCCG: 0.1% • Scenario: 46.3%
Data from 2024-10-27
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
4.6%
1.4%Data from 2024-10-27
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-27