Big XII Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-11-03
Conference Standings
| 1 |  BYUBYU | 5-0 | 8-0 | 86.1% | |
| T2 |  Iowa StateISU | 4-1 | 7-1 | 46.7% | |
| T2 |  ColoradoCOLO | 4-1 | 6-2 | 19.0% | |
| T4 |  Kansas StateKSU | 4-2 | 7-2 | 30.3% | |
| T4 |  Texas TechTTU | 4-2 | 6-3 | 11.7% | |
| T6 |  CincinnatiCIN | 3-2 | 5-3 | 2.0% | |
| T6 |  Arizona StateASU | 3-2 | 6-2 | 1.9% | |
| T6 |  West VirginiaWVU | 3-2 | 4-4 | 1.5% | |
| T9 |  BaylorBAY | 3-3 | 5-4 | 0.7% | |
| T9 |  TCUTCU | 3-3 | 5-4 | 0.1% | |
| T9 |  HoustonHOU | 3-3 | 4-5 | <0.1% | |
| 12 |  UCFUCF | 2-4 | 4-5 | - | |
| T13 |  KansasKU | 1-4 | 2-6 | - | |
| T13 |  UtahUTAH | 1-4 | 4-4 | - | |
| 15 |  ArizonaARIZ | 1-5 | 3-6 | - | |
| 16 |  Oklahoma StateOKST | 0-6 | 3-6 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-11-03
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-11-03
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-03
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 86.1%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 86.4% (+0.3%) | 86.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 85.1% (-1.0%) | 88.1% (+2.0%) | |
| 87.1% (+1.0%) | 85.1% (-1.0%) | |
| 86.3% (+0.2%) | 86.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 95.4% (+9.3%) | 73.3% (-12.8%) | |
| 86.3% (+0.1%) | 86.0% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Oklahoma StateKansasUCFCincinnatiBYUColoradoCCG: 97.9% • Scenario: 0.8%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
BYUCCG: 95.4% • Scenario: 57.9%
Data from 2024-11-03
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BYUBYU | 100% | 100% | 82.8% | 7.5% | 86.1% |
| Iowa StateISU | - | 99.7% | 57.9% | 5.0% | 46.7% |
| Kansas StateKSU | - | - | 86.3% | 8.3% | 30.3% |
| ColoradoCOLO | - | 86.7% | 29.4% | 1.0% | 19.0% |
| Texas TechTTU | - | - | 54.4% | 2.2% | 11.7% |
| CincinnatiCIN | - | - | 66.5% | 13.5% | 2.0% |
| Arizona StateASU | - | - | 67.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% |
| West VirginiaWVU | - | - | 27.9% | 0.7% | 1.5% |
| BaylorBAY | - | - | - | 4.7% | 0.7% |
| TCUTCU | - | - | - | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| HoustonHOU | - | - | - | 3.3% | <0.1% |
| ArizonaARIZ | - | - | - | - | - |
| KansasKU | - | - | - | - | - |
| Oklahoma StateOKST | - | - | - | - | - |
| UCFUCF | - | - | - | - | - |
| UtahUTAH | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2024-11-03
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 3-6 | 2-7 | 1-8 | 0-9 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BYUBYU(5-0) | 19.3% | 41.1% | 30.2% | 8.8% | 0.6% | - | - | - | - | - | 7.7 |
| Iowa StateISU(4-1) | - | 21.5% | 41.3% | 28.4% | 8.1% | 0.8% | - | - | - | - | 6.7 |
| ColoradoCOLO(4-1) | - | 10.3% | 33.0% | 37.5% | 16.8% | 2.4% | - | - | - | - | 6.3 |
| Kansas StateKSU(4-2) | - | - | 30.1% | 51.3% | 17.0% | 1.6% | - | - | - | - | 6.1 |
| Texas TechTTU(4-2) | - | - | 19.9% | 42.7% | 30.3% | 7.2% | - | - | - | - | 5.8 |
| TCUTCU(3-3) | - | - | - | 21.9% | 47.9% | 26.0% | 4.2% | - | - | - | 4.9 |
| West VirginiaWVU(3-2) | - | - | 4.7% | 21.4% | 37.6% | 28.5% | 7.7% | - | - | - | 4.9 |
| Arizona StateASU(3-2) | - | - | 2.4% | 18.5% | 39.9% | 31.3% | 7.9% | - | - | - | 4.8 |
| BaylorBAY(3-3) | - | - | - | 14.2% | 40.7% | 35.9% | 9.2% | - | - | - | 4.6 |
| CincinnatiCIN(3-2) | - | - | 0.9% | 10.6% | 36.9% | 39.1% | 12.5% | - | - | - | 4.5 |
| HoustonHOU(3-3) | - | - | - | 1.3% | 15.9% | 45.6% | 37.2% | - | - | - | 3.8 |
| UCFUCF(2-4) | - | - | - | - | 17.8% | 42.0% | 32.3% | 7.9% | - | - | 3.7 |
| KansasKU(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 3.5% | 19.3% | 37.5% | 30.5% | 9.3% | - | 2.8 |
| UtahUTAH(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 1.7% | 12.4% | 32.3% | 37.6% | 16.0% | - | 2.5 |
| ArizonaARIZ(1-5) | - | - | - | - | - | 4.8% | 27.7% | 47.2% | 20.3% | - | 2.2 |
| Oklahoma StateOKST(0-6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2.4% | 18.4% | 44.8% | 34.4% | 0.9 |
Data from 2024-11-03