Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
19.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W31-26 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L10-28 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W28-9 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W38-31 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W48-21 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | L28-31 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W34-7 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W34-23 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:47% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:62% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:45% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:79% |
Data from 2024-11-03
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 10.3% | 86.7% |
| 7-2 | 33.0% | 29.4% |
| 6-3 | 37.5% | 1.0% |
| 5-4 | 16.8% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 2.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-03
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-03
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 19.0% (+0.1%) | 19.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 16.3% (-2.7%) | 24.4% (+5.5%) | |
| 19.4% (+0.4%) | 18.6% (-0.4%) | |
| 18.6% (-0.4%) | 19.3% (+0.3%) | |
| 16.7% (-2.3%) | 22.2% (+3.2%) | |
| 35.3% (+16.3%) | 4.6% (-14.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Oklahoma State
Kansas
UCF
Cincinnati
UtahColoradoCCG: 49.5% • Scenario: 0.5%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ColoradoCCG: 35.3% • Scenario: 46.9%
Data from 2024-11-03
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
86.7%
10.3%Any 1 loss
29.4%
33.0%45.8%
2.8%33.8%
6.2%32.0%
12.6%
20.3%
11.5%Any 2 losses
1.8%
16.1%2.7%
1.8%2.0%
3.4%1.9%
7.8%0.9%
3.1%Data from 2024-11-03
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-03