Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
2.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W38-20 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L27-28 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W27-16 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W34-0 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L41-44 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W19-13 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W24-14 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | L23-34 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:56% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:17% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:16% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:59% |
Data from 2024-11-03
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 0.9% | 66.5% |
| 6-3 | 10.6% | 13.5% |
| 5-4 | 36.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 39.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 12.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-03
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-03
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.8% (-0.2%) | 2.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.7% (-0.3%) | 2.5% (+0.5%) | |
| 2.0% (-0.0%) | 2.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-1.7%) | 3.3% (+1.3%) | |
| 1.5% (-0.5%) | 2.6% (+0.6%) | |
| 1.7% (-0.3%) | 2.2% (+0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
TCU
Kansas
UCFCincinnati
Utah
Texas TechCCG: 6.6% • Scenario: 1.6%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
CincinnatiCCG: 3.3% • Scenario: 56.1%
Data from 2024-11-03
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
66.5%
0.9%Any 1 loss
13.5%
10.6%26.1%
0.7%
18.5%
0.7%
12.4%
4.8%
12.0%
4.4%Data from 2024-11-03
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-03