TCUHorned Frogs

5-4 T9th (3-3) in B12

Data from 2024-11-03 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.1%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	@StanfordSTAN	W34-27
2	9/07	vsLong Island UniversityLIU	W45-0
3	9/14	vsUCFUCF	L34-35
4	9/21	@SMUSMU	L42-66
5	9/28	vsKansasKU(N)	W38-27
6	10/04	vsHoustonHOU	L19-30
8	10/19	@UtahUTAH	W13-7
9	10/26	vsTexas TechTTU	W35-34
10	11/02	@BaylorBAY	L34-37
11	11/09	vsOklahoma StateOKST	Win prob:71%
13	11/23	vsArizonaARIZ	Win prob:76%
14	11/30	@CincinnatiCIN	Win prob:41%

Data from 2024-11-03 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
6-3	21.9%	0.5%
5-4	47.9%	0%
4-5	26.0%	0%
3-6	4.2%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-11-03 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

66.7%

8.3%

8.3%

8.3%

8.3%

Data from 2024-11-03 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Oklahoma StateOKST@TCUTCU	0.0% (-0.1%)	0.2% (+0.1%)
Iowa StateISU@KansasKU	0.0% (-0.1%)	0.3% (+0.2%)
UCFUCF@Arizona StateASU	0.1% (-0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
West VirginiaWVU@CincinnatiCIN	0.1% (-0.1%)	0.2% (+0.0%)
BYUBYU@UtahUTAH	0.1% (-0.0%)	0.2% (+0.1%)
ColoradoCOLO@Texas TechTTU	0.1% (-0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

TCU

Kansas

Arizona State

Cincinnati

Utah

Texas Tech

CCG: 0.9% • Scenario: 1.4%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

TCU

Kansas

CCG: 0.4% • Scenario: 23.4%

Data from 2024-11-03 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

0.5%

21.9%

Data from 2024-11-03 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-11-03 • SportsSimulate.com