Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
86.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W41-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W18-15 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W34-14 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W38-9 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W34-28 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W41-19 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W38-35 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W37-24 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:58% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:64% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:59% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:89% |
Data from 2024-11-03
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 19.3% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 41.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-2 | 30.2% | 82.8% |
| 6-3 | 8.8% | 7.5% |
| 5-4 | 0.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-03
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-03
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 86.4% (+0.3%) | 86.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 85.1% (-1.0%) | 88.1% (+2.0%) | |
| 87.1% (+1.0%) | 85.1% (-1.0%) | |
| 86.3% (+0.2%) | 86.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 95.4% (+9.3%) | 73.3% (-12.8%) | |
| 86.3% (+0.1%) | 86.0% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Oklahoma State
Kansas
UCF
CincinnatiBYU
ColoradoCCG: 97.9% • Scenario: 0.8%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
BYUCCG: 95.4% • Scenario: 57.9%
Data from 2024-11-03
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
19.3%Any 1 loss
100.0%
41.1%Any 2 losses
82.8%
30.2%
89.7%
1.7%88.9%
1.3%
84.0%
10.0%82.6%
1.7%81.8%
7.7%80.0%
7.9%Any 3 losses
7.5%
8.8%8.4%
1.0%8.2%
1.2%7.4%
5.7%6.6%
0.9%Data from 2024-11-03
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-03