Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
23.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W63-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W42-16 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W42-10 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W41-34 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L35-40 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W27-25 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | L17-24 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W34-0 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:70% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:86% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:96% |
Data from 2024-11-03
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 58.1% | 40.3% |
| 5-3 | 36.5% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 5.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-03
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-03
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 33.4% (+10.0%) | 0.0% (-23.4%) | |
| 28.5% (+5.1%) | 23.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 22.1% (-1.2%) | 24.3% (+0.9%) | |
| 45.9% (+22.5%) | 21.9% (-1.5%) | |
| 10.4% (-13.0%) | 40.1% (+16.7%) | |
| 23.4% (+0.0%) | 23.3% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Alabama
Mississippi State
Missouri
Florida
Ole Miss
South CarolinaCCG: 91.7% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
AlabamaOle MissCCG: 57.3% • Scenario: 30.6%
Data from 2024-11-03
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
40.3%
52.2%
40.0%
5.9%Data from 2024-11-03
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-03