Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
8.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W34-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W48-3 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W13-12 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L34-41 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W31-13 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W41-31 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W30-15 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | W34-20 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | L10-28 | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:68% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:94% |
Data from 2024-11-10
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 68.4% | 12.1% |
| 5-3 | 31.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-10
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-10
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 5.1% (-3.2%) | 15.7% (+7.4%) | |
| 7.1% (-1.1%) | 31.1% (+22.9%) | |
| 8.3% (-0.0%) | 8.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 8.4% (+0.1%) | 8.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-8.3%) | 12.1% (+3.8%) | |
| 8.6% (+0.3%) | 8.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 7.8% (-0.4%) | 8.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 8.1% (-0.1%) | 8.3% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Florida
Arkansas
Murray State
New Mexico StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
FloridaGeorgiaCCG: 23.1% • Scenario: 20.3%
Data from 2024-11-10
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
12.1%
63.9%Any 1 loss
12.1%
4.5%
12.2%
0.7%
12.1%
3.8%11.9%
<0.1%Data from 2024-11-10
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-10