TCUHorned Frogs

6-4 T7th (4-3) in B12

Data from 2024-11-10 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.2%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	@StanfordSTAN	W34-27
2	9/07	vsLong Island UniversityLIU	W45-0
3	9/14	vsUCFUCF	L34-35
4	9/21	@SMUSMU	L42-66
5	9/28	vsKansasKU(N)	W38-27
6	10/04	vsHoustonHOU	L19-30
8	10/19	@UtahUTAH	W13-7
9	10/26	vsTexas TechTTU	W35-34
10	11/02	@BaylorBAY	L34-37
11	11/09	vsOklahoma StateOKST	W38-13
13	11/23	vsArizonaARIZ	Win prob:81%
14	11/30	@CincinnatiCIN	Win prob:50%

Data from 2024-11-10 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
6-3	40.3%	0.5%
5-4	50.2%	0%
4-5	9.5%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-11-10 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

90.5%

4.8%

4.8%

0.0%

0.0%

Data from 2024-11-10 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
BaylorBAY@West VirginiaWVU	0.3% (+0.1%)	0.1% (-0.1%)
CincinnatiCIN@Iowa StateISU	0.3% (+0.1%)	0.2% (-0.0%)
KansasKU@BYUBYU	0.2% (+0.0%)	0.2% (-0.0%)
UtahUTAH@ColoradoCOLO	0.5% (+0.3%)	0.1% (-0.1%)
HoustonHOU@ArizonaARIZ	0.2% (+0.0%)	0.2% (-0.0%)
Arizona StateASU@Kansas StateKSU	0.3% (+0.1%)	0.2% (-0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Baylor

Cincinnati

BYU

Utah

Houston

Arizona State

CCG: 5.9% • Scenario: 0.1%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Utah

CCG: 0.5% • Scenario: 34.5%

Data from 2024-11-10 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

0.5%

40.3%

Data from 2024-11-10 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-11-10 • SportsSimulate.com