Mid-American Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-09-02
Conference Standings
| T1 |  ToledoTOL | 0-0 | 1-0 | 49.1% | |
| T1 |  Miami (OH)M-OH | 0-0 | 0-1 | 31.9% | |
| T1 |  OhioOHIO | 0-0 | 0-1 | 28.4% | |
| T1 |  Bowling GreenBGSU | 0-0 | 1-0 | 23.6% | |
| T1 |  Northern IllinoisNIU | 0-0 | 1-0 | 23.5% | |
| T1 |  Ball StateBALL | 0-0 | 0-0 | 13.2% | |
| T1 |  BuffaloBUF | 0-0 | 1-0 | 10.8% | |
| T1 |  Western MichiganWMU | 0-0 | 0-1 | 8.6% | |
| T1 |  Eastern MichiganEMU | 0-0 | 1-0 | 6.0% | |
| T1 |  Central MichiganCMU | 0-0 | 1-0 | 4.3% | |
| T1 |  AkronAKR | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0.3% | |
| T1 |  Kent StateKENT | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0.2% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 49.1%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 48.7% (-0.5%) | 49.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 49.6% (+0.4%) | 49.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 49.0% (-0.1%) | 49.5% (+0.4%) | |
| 49.0% (-0.1%) | 49.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 48.6% (-0.5%) | 49.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 48.5% (-0.6%) | 49.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 49.7% (+0.5%) | 49.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 49.6% (+0.4%) | 49.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 49.4% (+0.3%) | 49.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 47.4% (-1.8%) | 49.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 49.0% (-0.2%) | 49.1% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ToledoTOL | 100% | 99.6% | 74.2% | 11.2% | - | 49.1% |
| Miami (OH)M-OH | 100% | 99.5% | 72.5% | 9.2% | - | 31.9% |
| OhioOHIO | 100% | 97.7% | 58.0% | 4.5% | - | 28.4% |
| Bowling GreenBGSU | 100% | 98.1% | 62.6% | 4.9% | - | 23.6% |
| Northern IllinoisNIU | 100% | 99.1% | 69.1% | 8.9% | - | 23.5% |
| Ball StateBALL | 100% | 98.8% | 70.7% | 8.2% | - | 13.2% |
| BuffaloBUF | 100% | 97.8% | 60.3% | 4.8% | - | 10.8% |
| Western MichiganWMU | 100% | 95.2% | 49.2% | 3.2% | - | 8.6% |
| Eastern MichiganEMU | 100% | 98.3% | 61.0% | 4.9% | - | 6.0% |
| Central MichiganCMU | 100% | 100% | 76.6% | 15.0% | - | 4.3% |
| AkronAKR | - | 100% | 62.1% | 7.4% | <0.1% | 0.3% |
| Kent StateKENT | - | 100% | 61.0% | 7.4% | - | 0.2% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ToledoTOL(0-0) | 5.2% | 18.9% | 29.9% | 26.5% | 13.9% | 4.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 5.6 |
| OhioOHIO(0-0) | 1.8% | 10.6% | 25.6% | 31.0% | 21.1% | 8.0% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 5.1 |
| Miami (OH)M-OH(0-0) | 1.8% | 10.1% | 23.8% | 29.9% | 22.1% | 9.6% | 2.3% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 5.0 |
| Bowling GreenBGSU(0-0) | 1.2% | 7.9% | 21.2% | 30.1% | 24.5% | 11.7% | 3.2% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 4.8 |
| Northern IllinoisNIU(0-0) | 1.0% | 6.8% | 19.0% | 29.1% | 25.6% | 13.6% | 4.2% | 0.6% | <0.1% | 4.7 |
| BuffaloBUF(0-0) | 0.3% | 2.7% | 11.1% | 24.2% | 29.6% | 21.3% | 8.8% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 4.1 |
| Western MichiganWMU(0-0) | 0.3% | 2.6% | 10.5% | 23.1% | 29.8% | 22.3% | 9.3% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 4.1 |
| Ball StateBALL(0-0) | 0.4% | 3.2% | 11.1% | 21.9% | 27.3% | 21.6% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 0.4% | 4.0 |
| Eastern MichiganEMU(0-0) | 0.1% | 1.2% | 6.2% | 17.3% | 27.7% | 27.0% | 15.2% | 4.7% | 0.6% | 3.6 |
| Central MichiganCMU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.4% | 3.0% | 10.6% | 22.8% | 29.6% | 22.4% | 9.4% | 1.7% | 3.1 |
| AkronAKR(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.2% | 2.0% | 8.4% | 21.9% | 32.8% | 26.2% | 8.5% | 2.0 |
| Kent StateKENT(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 7.3% | 21.2% | 34.0% | 27.3% | 8.6% | 2.0 |
Data from 2024-09-02