Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
49.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W49-10 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:93% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:53% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:70% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:63% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:66% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:54% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:70% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:72% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:81% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:66% | |
| 14 | 11/26 | Win prob:86% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 5.2% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 18.9% | 99.6% |
| 6-2 | 29.9% | 74.2% |
| 5-3 | 26.5% | 11.2% |
| 4-4 | 13.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 4.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.9% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 48.7% (-0.5%) | 49.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 49.6% (+0.4%) | 49.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 49.0% (-0.1%) | 49.5% (+0.4%) | |
| 49.0% (-0.1%) | 49.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 48.6% (-0.5%) | 49.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 48.5% (-0.6%) | 49.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 49.7% (+0.5%) | 49.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 49.6% (+0.4%) | 49.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 49.4% (+0.3%) | 49.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 47.4% (-1.8%) | 49.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 49.0% (-0.2%) | 49.1% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.8%Any 1 loss
99.7%
9.0%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.8%100.0%
1.6%100.0%
0.7%100.0%
0.1%99.8%
1.0%99.8%
0.9%99.8%
0.4%99.5%
0.9%99.4%
1.5%98.9%
0.7%Any 2 losses
86.6%
20.3%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.9%
0.8%99.8%
0.6%99.7%
0.4%99.7%
0.4%99.7%
0.3%99.7%
0.3%99.6%
0.8%99.4%
1.4%99.4%
0.7%99.4%
0.7%99.3%
0.4%99.1%
0.9%99.1%
0.1%99.0%
0.2%98.2%
<0.1%98.0%
0.1%94.4%
<0.1%89.2%
0.1%88.0%
0.2%87.6%
0.1%87.1%
0.2%86.5%
0.3%84.0%
0.2%83.6%
0.3%82.8%
0.1%80.3%
0.3%79.6%
0.4%79.5%
0.6%78.6%
0.4%78.6%
0.2%78.2%
0.6%77.8%
0.2%77.6%
0.4%77.4%
0.4%77.0%
0.4%74.1%
0.8%73.3%
0.2%70.4%
0.2%68.7%
0.8%67.0%
0.4%66.3%
0.9%64.8%
0.7%63.1%
0.4%59.6%
0.6%Any 3 losses
55.2%
26.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.8%
0.6%99.5%
0.4%99.2%
0.4%98.4%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.0%
0.1%94.5%
<0.1%93.5%
<0.1%92.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%89.2%
0.2%87.9%
0.1%87.5%
0.1%86.6%
0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.5%
<0.1%85.3%
0.3%85.0%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.4%
0.5%84.4%
0.1%84.3%
0.1%84.1%
0.2%83.9%
0.2%83.3%
0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.8%
<0.1%82.7%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%82.5%
0.2%82.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.7%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.7%
0.1%80.1%
0.3%80.0%
0.3%79.3%
0.3%78.6%
0.1%77.8%
0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%76.3%
0.2%76.0%
0.2%75.8%
0.2%75.4%
0.2%75.3%
<0.1%75.2%
0.5%75.1%
0.2%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.8%
0.4%74.8%
0.3%74.6%
0.2%74.3%
0.7%73.9%
0.3%73.3%
0.2%72.5%
0.1%72.3%
0.2%72.2%
0.4%72.0%
<0.1%71.7%
<0.1%69.9%
0.7%69.7%
<0.1%68.6%
0.4%68.4%
<0.1%68.3%
0.4%67.8%
<0.1%66.2%
<0.1%66.0%
0.4%65.8%
0.3%65.0%
<0.1%64.9%
0.5%64.5%
0.5%63.0%
0.3%62.8%
0.8%61.4%
0.2%60.6%
0.2%60.4%
0.1%60.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%27.6%
<0.1%23.9%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%21.6%
<0.1%21.4%
0.1%21.1%
<0.1%19.6%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
0.1%18.6%
0.2%16.9%
0.2%16.7%
<0.1%16.4%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.5%
0.2%15.1%
<0.1%14.2%
0.1%14.0%
0.2%13.9%
0.2%13.9%
<0.1%13.8%
0.2%13.2%
<0.1%12.2%
0.2%11.5%
0.2%11.4%
0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.4%
0.3%11.3%
0.3%11.0%
0.1%10.8%
0.3%10.5%
0.1%10.4%
0.1%10.3%
0.4%10.3%
0.3%10.3%
<0.1%10.2%
0.1%10.0%
0.1%9.5%
0.2%9.5%
0.3%9.4%
<0.1%9.3%
0.1%9.0%
0.2%8.9%
0.1%8.8%
0.2%8.6%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
0.1%7.4%
0.2%7.4%
0.5%7.0%
0.2%6.9%
0.2%5.8%
0.2%5.1%
0.5%5.0%
0.4%4.3%
0.3%Any 4 losses
30.1%
17.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%93.5%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.6%
<0.1%87.6%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.8%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.6%
0.2%85.3%
<0.1%84.5%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.2%
<0.1%82.7%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.1%
0.1%81.1%
0.1%80.9%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.5%
<0.1%78.3%
0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.8%
0.2%76.4%
0.2%76.3%
<0.1%75.5%
0.3%75.4%
0.1%75.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.2%
0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.0%
0.3%71.4%
<0.1%70.8%
<0.1%70.1%
0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%67.6%
<0.1%67.3%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.3%
0.3%66.0%
0.4%65.7%
0.2%63.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.8%
<0.1%60.6%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%54.8%
0.2%53.8%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%34.1%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.9%
<0.1%28.8%
<0.1%25.4%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.2%
0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%22.0%
0.1%21.2%
<0.1%21.2%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.7%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.7%
<0.1%18.6%
0.3%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.9%
<0.1%16.9%
0.2%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.7%
<0.1%15.5%
0.3%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%14.9%
<0.1%14.9%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%14.5%
0.3%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.2%
0.1%14.0%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.9%
0.1%13.7%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%12.9%
0.2%12.7%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.3%
0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%11.9%
0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.5%
0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.3%
0.1%11.3%
0.2%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.7%
0.2%10.7%
0.2%10.7%
0.2%10.6%
0.1%10.5%
0.1%10.5%
0.1%10.2%
0.1%10.2%
0.1%10.1%
0.2%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.6%
0.4%9.4%
0.1%9.3%
0.3%9.3%
0.3%9.2%
0.1%9.2%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
0.2%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.0%
0.2%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.4%
0.3%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%8.1%
0.4%7.9%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.6%
0.1%7.6%
<0.1%7.6%
<0.1%7.6%
0.3%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
0.2%6.6%
0.4%6.6%
0.1%6.2%
0.2%6.1%
0.2%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
0.2%4.3%
0.3%3.5%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02