Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
7.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W51-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:93% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:87% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:94% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:52% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:96% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:80% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:15% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:43% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:68% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:80% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:88% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.1% | 99.0% |
| 7-1 | 10.5% | 50.9% |
| 6-2 | 28.9% | 2.6% |
| 5-3 | 33.2% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 19.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 5.9% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.9% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 7.1% (-0.1%) | 7.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 7.2% (-0.0%) | 7.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 7.2% (+0.0%) | 7.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 7.3% (+0.1%) | 7.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 7.1% (-0.1%) | 7.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 7.2% (-0.1%) | 7.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 7.3% (+0.0%) | 7.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 7.3% (+0.1%) | 7.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 7.1% (-0.2%) | 7.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 7.2% (-0.1%) | 7.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 7.0% (-0.2%) | 7.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 7.2% (-0.1%) | 7.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 7.6% (+0.4%) | 7.0% (-0.2%) | |
| 7.1% (-0.1%) | 7.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 7.3% (+0.1%) | 7.2% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.1%
0.9%Any 1 loss
51.7%
8.4%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
98.4%
0.1%
77.7%
0.1%
72.4%
0.5%
71.8%
0.2%
70.0%
0.2%
69.4%
<0.1%
61.7%
0.9%
54.4%
1.2%
43.2%
5.1%Any 2 losses
7.2%
24.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.6%
<0.1%67.1%
<0.1%65.6%
<0.1%60.5%
<0.1%60.2%
0.1%58.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.4%
<0.1%55.3%
0.2%54.2%
0.1%50.5%
0.2%49.2%
0.4%46.4%
0.8%21.9%
<0.1%19.8%
0.1%15.0%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.9%
0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%9.7%
0.2%8.6%
0.4%7.2%
0.2%6.4%
0.1%5.6%
0.3%4.4%
2.6%4.4%
1.2%3.8%
0.6%3.5%
1.3%3.4%
0.1%3.2%
0.3%3.2%
0.8%3.1%
0.3%2.5%
1.1%1.6%
4.9%0.5%
7.2%Any 3 losses
4.9%
4.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.4%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.4%
0.4%5.3%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
0.2%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
0.2%3.5%
0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.8%
0.2%2.6%
0.7%2.5%
0.2%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
0.2%1.6%
0.4%1.0%
0.1%0.7%
0.3%Any 4 losses
5.4%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02