Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
10.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W30-13 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:7% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:84% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:30% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:70% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:34% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:64% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:28% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:69% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:50% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:50% | |
| 14 | 11/26 | Win prob:85% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 2.7% | 97.8% |
| 6-2 | 11.1% | 60.3% |
| 5-3 | 24.2% | 4.8% |
| 4-4 | 29.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 21.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 8.8% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.9% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 11.2% (+0.4%) | 10.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 11.0% (+0.2%) | 10.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 10.7% (-0.1%) | 10.9% (+0.2%) | |
| 10.7% (-0.1%) | 10.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 11.2% (+0.5%) | 10.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 10.6% (-0.2%) | 10.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 11.3% (+0.6%) | 10.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 10.8% (+0.1%) | 10.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 10.6% (-0.1%) | 10.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 11.4% (+0.6%) | 10.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 10.9% (+0.2%) | 10.7% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
99.2%
0.3%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
95.2%
<0.1%
87.5%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
89.7%
2.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.4%
0.2%98.7%
<0.1%98.3%
0.3%97.8%
0.4%96.9%
<0.1%95.5%
0.3%93.8%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.4%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.4%
<0.1%44.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%31.5%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
59.7%
8.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.7%
<0.1%98.6%
<0.1%98.3%
0.2%98.2%
<0.1%96.8%
0.2%96.6%
<0.1%96.3%
0.1%92.3%
<0.1%89.2%
<0.1%87.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.7%
0.2%76.9%
<0.1%76.4%
<0.1%76.0%
0.1%75.3%
0.2%75.0%
<0.1%74.7%
<0.1%73.1%
0.3%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.6%
0.2%70.0%
<0.1%69.4%
0.4%67.5%
<0.1%67.4%
<0.1%66.7%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.9%
0.1%61.1%
0.4%60.6%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.2%
0.8%57.7%
0.1%56.8%
0.3%56.5%
0.3%54.3%
0.4%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%45.8%
0.8%44.4%
<0.1%42.5%
0.7%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%0.8%
0.1%Any 4 losses
17.1%
17.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.6%
<0.1%80.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.4%
<0.1%77.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%72.8%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.1%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.1%
<0.1%67.1%
<0.1%66.9%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%63.8%
<0.1%63.5%
0.4%63.1%
<0.1%62.6%
0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.3%
0.1%58.9%
0.1%57.9%
0.2%57.5%
<0.1%56.7%
<0.1%56.0%
0.2%55.6%
<0.1%55.4%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%44.7%
0.1%43.7%
0.3%43.1%
0.3%41.2%
<0.1%39.4%
0.1%35.9%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.4%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.9%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.5%
0.2%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%10.1%
0.2%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.6%
0.4%8.5%
<0.1%8.4%
0.4%8.4%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.5%
0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.3%
0.2%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
0.1%6.8%
0.2%6.7%
<0.1%6.4%
0.2%6.2%
1.0%5.9%
0.1%5.3%
0.2%5.3%
0.5%5.1%
0.2%4.9%
0.7%4.9%
0.1%4.5%
0.3%4.3%
<0.1%3.9%
0.4%3.8%
0.4%3.5%
0.2%3.5%
0.3%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
0.3%3.2%
0.1%2.9%
0.7%2.7%
0.9%2.5%
0.4%2.2%
<0.1%2.0%
0.1%1.7%
0.1%1.7%
0.7%1.6%
1.7%1.4%
0.7%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02