Mountain West Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-09-02
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Boise StateBOIS | 0-0 | 1-0 | 51.8% | |
| T1 |  Air ForceAF | 0-0 | 1-0 | 40.6% | |
| T1 |  UNLVUNLV | 0-0 | 1-0 | 32.1% | |
| T1 |  Fresno StateFRES | 0-0 | 0-1 | 29.6% | |
| T1 |  San José StateSJSU | 0-0 | 1-0 | 29.1% | |
| T1 |  San Diego StateSDSU | 0-0 | 1-0 | 6.9% | |
| T1 |  WyomingWYO | 0-0 | 0-1 | 4.0% | |
| T1 |  Utah StateUSU | 0-0 | 1-0 | 3.8% | |
| T1 |  Colorado StateCSU | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0.8% | |
| T1 |  NevadaNEV | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0.5% | |
| T1 |  Hawai'iHAW | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0.4% | |
| T1 |  New MexicoUNM | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0.4% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 51.8%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 52.0% (+0.2%) | 51.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 52.5% (+0.7%) | 51.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 51.9% (+0.0%) | 51.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 51.6% (-0.3%) | 51.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 51.8% (-0.1%) | 51.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 51.6% (-0.2%) | 51.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 52.5% (+0.7%) | 51.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 54.4% (+2.6%) | 50.2% (-1.6%) | |
| 52.3% (+0.5%) | 51.8% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
IdahoUtah StateSan Diego State
Northern Colorado
Utah TechCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
San José StateCCG: 54.4% • Scenario: 38.5%
Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 7-0 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 4-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise StateBOIS | 100% | 89.6% | 24.5% | 0.3% | 51.8% |
| Air ForceAF | 100% | 84.2% | 17.9% | 0.1% | 40.6% |
| UNLVUNLV | 100% | 95.9% | 37.0% | 0.4% | 32.1% |
| Fresno StateFRES | 100% | 86.5% | 16.2% | 0.1% | 29.6% |
| San José StateSJSU | 100% | 99.3% | 47.8% | 0.7% | 29.1% |
| San Diego StateSDSU | 100% | 92.2% | 25.4% | 0.2% | 6.9% |
| WyomingWYO | 100% | 94.3% | 28.3% | 0.2% | 4.0% |
| Utah StateUSU | 100% | 79.0% | 10.2% | <0.1% | 3.8% |
| Colorado StateCSU | 100% | 82.8% | 16.4% | <0.1% | 0.8% |
| NevadaNEV | 100% | 100% | 52.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| Hawai'iHAW | 100% | 90.2% | 21.8% | <0.1% | 0.4% |
| New MexicoUNM | 100% | 78.5% | 13.4% | <0.1% | 0.4% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 7-0 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 4-3 | 3-4 | 2-5 | 1-6 | 0-7 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise StateBOIS(0-0) | 13.3% | 34.0% | 32.8% | 15.4% | 3.9% | 0.5% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.4 |
| Air ForceAF(0-0) | 10.4% | 29.0% | 32.8% | 19.6% | 6.8% | 1.3% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 5.1 |
| Fresno StateFRES(0-0) | 5.1% | 21.7% | 35.1% | 26.1% | 9.9% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 4.8 |
| UNLVUNLV(0-0) | 3.8% | 17.3% | 31.4% | 28.5% | 14.5% | 4.0% | 0.5% | <0.1% | 4.5 |
| San José StateSJSU(0-0) | 2.4% | 12.9% | 28.8% | 31.4% | 18.2% | 5.5% | 0.8% | <0.1% | 4.3 |
| San Diego StateSDSU(0-0) | 0.3% | 3.3% | 13.9% | 29.7% | 31.2% | 17.0% | 4.3% | 0.4% | 3.4 |
| Utah StateUSU(0-0) | 0.2% | 2.8% | 13.1% | 27.7% | 31.2% | 18.8% | 5.6% | 0.7% | 3.3 |
| WyomingWYO(0-0) | 0.1% | 1.6% | 8.3% | 21.9% | 31.4% | 24.9% | 10.1% | 1.7% | 2.9 |
| Colorado StateCSU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.3% | 3.0% | 12.7% | 28.3% | 32.8% | 18.7% | 4.2% | 2.4 |
| Hawai'iHAW(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.1% | 1.5% | 8.1% | 23.5% | 35.4% | 24.8% | 6.6% | 2.1 |
| New MexicoUNM(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.8% | 7.8% | 21.5% | 32.7% | 27.0% | 9.0% | 2.0 |
| NevadaNEV(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.8% | 5.1% | 18.7% | 35.3% | 30.6% | 9.5% | 1.8 |
Data from 2024-09-02