OregonDucks

1-0 T1st (0-0) in B1G

Data from 2024-09-02 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

41.5%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsIdahoIDHO	W24-14
2	9/07	vsBoise StateBOIS	Win prob:87%
3	9/14	@Oregon StateORST	Win prob:76%
5	9/28	@UCLAUCLA	Win prob:85%
6	10/04	vsMichigan StateMSU	Win prob:96%
7	10/12	vsOhio StateOSU	Win prob:55%
8	10/18	@PurduePUR	Win prob:89%
9	10/26	vsIllinoisILL	Win prob:93%
10	11/02	@MichiganMICH	Win prob:32%
11	11/09	vsMarylandMD	Win prob:81%
12	11/16	@WisconsinWIS	Win prob:81%
14	11/30	vsWashingtonWASH	Win prob:77%

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	5.9%	100.0%
8-1	24.5%	93.4%
7-2	35.0%	35.8%
6-3	23.7%	1.0%
5-4	8.8%	0%
4-5	1.9%	0%
3-6	0.3%	0%
2-7	0.0%	0%
1-8	0%	0%
0-9	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

40.6%

28.0%

24.2%

4.1%

3.1%

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
ColoradoCOLO@NebraskaNEB	41.8% (+0.3%)	41.4% (-0.1%)
TexasTEX@MichiganMICH	41.3% (-0.2%)	41.6% (+0.1%)
Iowa StateISU@IowaIOWA	41.3% (-0.2%)	41.6% (+0.2%)
Eastern MichiganEMU@WashingtonWASH	40.5% (-1.0%)	41.5% (+0.1%)
South DakotaSDAK@WisconsinWIS	41.9% (+0.5%)	41.4% (-0.1%)
Utah StateUSU@USCUSC	41.4% (-0.1%)	41.5% (+0.0%)
Michigan StateMSU@MarylandMD	42.3% (+0.9%)	41.3% (-0.1%)
KansasKU@IllinoisILL	41.6% (+0.1%)	41.3% (-0.2%)
DukeDUKE@NorthwesternNU	41.5% (+0.0%)	41.4% (-0.1%)
AkronAKR@RutgersRUTG	41.6% (+0.1%)	41.4% (-0.0%)
Bowling GreenBGSU@Penn StatePSU	41.8% (+0.4%)	41.4% (-0.0%)
Western IllinoisWIU@IndianaIU	41.4% (-0.0%)	41.5% (+0.0%)
Western MichiganWMU@Ohio StateOSU	41.1% (-0.4%)	41.5% (+0.0%)
Rhode IslandURI@MinnesotaMINN	41.8% (+0.3%)	41.4% (-0.0%)
Boise StateBOIS@OregonORE	41.6% (+0.1%)	41.4% (-0.0%)

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

3.9%

Any 1 loss

94.0%

18.1%

100.0%

1.2%

100.0%

0.6%

99.6%

0.9%

99.3%

0.7%

98.7%

0.2%

97.8%

0.9%

96.9%

0.5%

96.4%

1.2%

96.3%

0.3%

92.2%

8.4%

89.7%

3.2%

Any 2 losses

49.8%

30.8%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

0.3%

100.0%

0.2%

100.0%

<0.1%

99.5%

0.2%

99.3%

0.1%

99.2%

0.3%

98.5%

<0.1%

98.4%

0.1%

98.1%

0.2%

97.8%

<0.1%

96.2%

<0.1%

94.3%

0.2%

94.1%

<0.1%

93.6%

0.3%

93.4%

1.2%

92.1%

2.6%

90.5%

1.0%

90.2%

0.5%

90.0%

<0.1%

84.2%

<0.1%

81.8%

<0.1%

75.7%

<0.1%

75.4%

<0.1%

71.4%

<0.1%

71.4%

<0.1%

70.9%

0.1%

70.3%

<0.1%

68.2%

0.3%

61.3%

0.1%

61.1%

0.2%

59.7%

<0.1%

58.8%

0.1%

58.2%

0.1%

57.6%

0.2%

54.3%

0.1%

53.8%

<0.1%

53.7%

0.2%

50.8%

<0.1%

50.3%

0.7%

48.3%

1.6%

46.9%

0.3%

46.7%

1.9%

46.5%

1.1%

44.0%

0.1%

43.6%

0.6%

42.3%

0.3%

42.0%

0.4%

39.1%

0.8%

38.0%

0.2%

34.9%

2.5%

32.6%

2.0%

29.6%

0.8%

28.6%

1.0%

19.0%

7.0%

Any 3 losses

21.4%

22.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

97.7%

<0.1%

96.9%

<0.1%

94.1%

<0.1%

93.8%

<0.1%

93.2%

<0.1%

92.5%

0.4%

87.6%

0.1%

87.5%

<0.1%

83.3%

<0.1%

83.3%

<0.1%

83.3%

<0.1%

80.0%

<0.1%

79.2%

<0.1%

76.9%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

68.8%

<0.1%

68.8%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

66.1%

<0.1%

66.0%

<0.1%

65.5%

<0.1%

64.3%

<0.1%

64.0%

<0.1%

64.0%

<0.1%

62.5%

<0.1%

62.2%

<0.1%

61.1%

<0.1%

60.9%

<0.1%

60.7%

<0.1%

60.5%

<0.1%

59.6%

<0.1%

57.5%

<0.1%

56.0%

<0.1%

53.8%

<0.1%

52.7%

<0.1%

51.9%

0.2%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

49.3%

<0.1%

48.0%

<0.1%

47.9%

0.5%

47.3%

<0.1%

47.1%

0.2%

47.0%

0.3%

46.3%

<0.1%

46.2%

0.6%

45.3%

0.3%

44.4%

<0.1%

43.8%

0.1%

42.9%

<0.1%

42.1%

0.1%

42.0%

0.3%

41.5%

<0.1%

40.4%

0.2%

40.0%

<0.1%

40.0%

<0.1%

39.1%

<0.1%

38.5%

0.3%

37.3%

0.1%

36.4%

0.8%

35.7%

0.6%

34.0%

0.3%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

32.8%

0.4%

31.7%

<0.1%

30.4%

0.1%

29.6%

0.1%

26.8%

0.3%

25.8%

<0.1%

20.5%

1.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

19.6%

2.2%

14.3%

<0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

8.8%

<0.1%

8.3%

<0.1%

7.1%

<0.1%

5.9%

<0.1%

5.6%

<0.1%

5.6%

<0.1%

4.8%

<0.1%

4.2%

<0.1%

4.0%

<0.1%

3.9%

<0.1%

3.7%

<0.1%

3.5%

<0.1%

3.5%

<0.1%

3.3%

0.1%

2.9%

<0.1%

2.8%

<0.1%

2.4%

<0.1%

2.1%

0.1%

2.0%

0.1%

2.0%

<0.1%

2.0%

0.1%

1.8%

<0.1%

1.6%

0.2%

1.6%

0.6%

1.6%

0.1%

1.6%

0.3%

1.5%

0.4%

1.4%

0.4%

1.3%

<0.1%

1.3%

0.5%

1.2%

0.2%

1.2%

0.3%

1.2%

0.2%

1.0%

0.1%

1.0%

0.2%

0.7%

0.1%

0.7%

0.4%

0.7%

0.6%

1.3%

0.6%

1.0%

0.6%

0.5%

0.6%

1.6%

0.5%

0.2%

Any 4 losses

9.2%

4.9%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

85.7%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

63.6%

<0.1%

60.0%

<0.1%

51.8%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

47.1%

<0.1%

46.7%

<0.1%

44.8%

<0.1%

44.0%

<0.1%

43.8%

<0.1%

43.2%

<0.1%

42.9%

<0.1%

40.0%

<0.1%

38.9%

<0.1%

37.5%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

32.5%

0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

19.7%

0.3%

16.7%

<0.1%

15.0%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

12.8%

<0.1%

10.0%

<0.1%

9.7%

<0.1%

8.3%

<0.1%

7.7%

<0.1%

7.7%

<0.1%

7.7%

<0.1%

7.1%

<0.1%

7.1%

<0.1%

6.9%

<0.1%

6.7%

<0.1%

5.9%

<0.1%

5.3%

<0.1%

5.3%

<0.1%

4.2%

<0.1%

4.1%

<0.1%

4.0%

<0.1%

4.0%

<0.1%

3.5%

<0.1%

3.0%

<0.1%

2.8%

0.1%

2.6%

<0.1%

2.6%

<0.1%

2.2%

<0.1%

2.1%

0.2%

1.8%

<0.1%

1.7%

0.3%

1.6%

<0.1%

1.3%

<0.1%

1.3%

<0.1%

1.2%

0.2%

0.8%

0.1%

0.8%

0.1%

0.7%

0.4%

0.7%

0.1%

0.7%

0.1%

0.6%

0.5%

0.6%

0.5%

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com