USC

USCTrojans

1-0 T1st (0-0) in B1G

Data from 2024-09-02 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

2.5%

Based on 100,000 simulations

USCSchedule & Results

WeekDateOpponentResult
19/01
vsLSULSU(N)
W27-20
29/07
vsUtah StUSU
Win prob:90%
49/21
@MichiganMICH
Win prob:11%
59/28
vsWisconsinWIS
Win prob:68%
610/05
@MinnesotaMINN
Win prob:67%
710/12
vsPenn StPSU
Win prob:31%
810/19
@MarylandMD
Win prob:37%
910/25
vsRutgersRUTG
Win prob:82%
1011/02
@WashingtonWASH
Win prob:31%
1211/16
vsNebraskaNEB
Win prob:71%
1311/23
@UCLAUCLA
Win prob:59%
1411/30
vsNotre DameND
Win prob:28%

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

USCRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
0.1%
100.0%
8-1
1.0%
88.2%
7-2
5.9%
25.6%
6-3
17.1%
0.5%
5-4
28.0%
0%
4-5
26.6%
0%
3-6
15.3%
0%
2-7
5.1%
0%
1-8
0.9%
0%
0-9
0.1%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely USC CCG Opponents

if USC makes the CCG

MichiganMichigan
38.7%
OregonOregon
20.6%
Ohio StateOhio St
20.6%
Penn StatePenn St
16.9%
WashingtonWashington
3.2%

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

USCThis Week's Impact

Game
USCCCG OddsAway
USCCCG OddsHome
ColoradoCOLO@NebraskaNEB
2.3%
(-0.2%)		2.6%
(+0.0%)
TexasTEX@MichiganMICH
2.6%
(+0.0%)		2.5%
(-0.0%)
Iowa StISU@IowaIOWA
2.5%
(-0.1%)		2.6%
(+0.1%)
E MichiganEMU@WashingtonWASH
2.6%
(+0.1%)		2.5%
(+0.0%)
South DakotaSDAK@WisconsinWIS
2.5%
(-0.1%)		2.5%
(+0.0%)
Utah StUSU@USCUSC
2.7%
(+0.1%)		2.5%
(-0.0%)
Michigan StMSU@MarylandMD
2.5%
(-0.1%)		2.5%
(+0.0%)
KansasKU@IllinoisILL
2.5%
(-0.0%)		2.6%
(+0.0%)
DukeDUKE@NorthwesternNU
2.5%
(+0.0%)		2.5%
(-0.0%)
AkronAKR@RutgersRUTG
2.5%
(-0.1%)		2.5%
(+0.0%)
Bowling GreenBGSU@Penn StPSU
2.3%
(-0.2%)		2.6%
(+0.0%)
Western IllinoisWIU@IndianaIU
2.6%
(+0.1%)		2.5%
(-0.0%)
W MichiganWMU@Ohio StOSU
2.1%
(-0.5%)		2.5%
(+0.0%)
Rhode IslandURI@MinnesotaMINN
2.4%
(-0.1%)		2.6%
(+0.0%)
Boise StBOIS@OregonORE
2.3%
(-0.3%)		2.6%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

USCLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
USC CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
87.4%
0.3%
Notre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
Minnesota
100.0%
<0.1%
Utah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Wisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
Nebraska
100.0%
<0.1%
Maryland
90.5%
<0.1%
Penn St
86.1%
<0.1%
UCLA
83.3%
<0.1%
Michigan
81.8%
0.1%
Washington
81.5%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
45.3%
2.1%
MinnesotaNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameRutgers
100.0%
<0.1%
NebraskaWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
MarylandUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Utah StWashington
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
Utah StWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
Penn StUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
UCLAUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
MarylandNotre Dame
98.1%
<0.1%
Notre DameUCLA
93.5%
<0.1%
NebraskaNotre Dame
93.3%
<0.1%
Notre DameWashington
92.6%
0.1%
Notre DamePenn St
87.1%
<0.1%
MichiganNotre Dame
85.8%
0.3%
RutgersUCLA
75.0%
<0.1%
MichiganUtah St
75.0%
<0.1%
MarylandWisconsin
66.7%
<0.1%
MinnesotaWisconsin
60.0%
<0.1%
MarylandRutgers
60.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaWashington
58.8%
<0.1%
MinnesotaUCLA
57.1%
<0.1%
MinnesotaPenn St
50.0%
<0.1%
NebraskaRutgers
50.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaRutgers
50.0%
<0.1%
MarylandNebraska
45.5%
<0.1%
MarylandWashington
42.1%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNebraska
40.0%
<0.1%
UCLAWisconsin
40.0%
<0.1%
NebraskaUCLA
40.0%
<0.1%
MarylandUCLA
38.9%
<0.1%
NebraskaPenn St
38.5%
<0.1%
MichiganRutgers
36.7%
<0.1%
RutgersWashington
33.3%
<0.1%
UCLAWashington
30.0%
<0.1%
NebraskaWashington
28.6%
<0.1%
Penn StRutgers
28.6%
<0.1%
Penn StUCLA
28.6%
<0.1%
MichiganWisconsin
28.3%
<0.1%
Penn StWashington
27.5%
<0.1%
WashingtonWisconsin
26.7%
<0.1%
MarylandMinnesota
26.3%
<0.1%
MarylandPenn St
25.9%
<0.1%
MarylandMichigan
24.8%
0.2%
MichiganNebraska
22.4%
<0.1%
Penn StWisconsin
21.4%
<0.1%
MichiganUCLA
21.0%
<0.1%
MichiganWashington
17.9%
0.3%
MichiganMinnesota
17.9%
<0.1%
MichiganPenn St
16.0%
0.3%
Any 3 losses
21.8%
5.0%
UCLAUtah StWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameUtah StWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
RutgersUCLAUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameUtah StWashington
100.0%
<0.1%
MarylandNotre DameUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameUCLAUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNotre DameUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Penn StRutgersUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaUCLAUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
MichiganNotre DameUtah St
82.5%
<0.1%
Notre DamePenn StUtah St
80.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameRutgersUCLA
75.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameRutgersWisconsin
75.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameUCLAWisconsin
70.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNotre DameUCLA
68.8%
<0.1%
MarylandNotre DameRutgers
66.7%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNotre DameWisconsin
66.7%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNebraskaNotre Dame
62.5%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNotre DameRutgers
50.0%
<0.1%
RutgersUtah StWashington
50.0%
<0.1%
NebraskaNotre DameRutgers
50.0%
<0.1%
NebraskaNotre DameUCLA
50.0%
<0.1%
MarylandUCLAUtah St
50.0%
<0.1%
MarylandRutgersUtah St
50.0%
<0.1%
MarylandNotre DameUCLA
47.4%
<0.1%
MarylandPenn StUtah St
46.2%
<0.1%
Notre DamePenn StRutgers
46.2%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNotre DameWashington
41.9%
<0.1%
MarylandNotre DameWashington
40.1%
0.1%
MarylandUtah StWashington
40.0%
<0.1%
MarylandNotre DameWisconsin
39.3%
<0.1%
Notre DameUCLAWashington
38.9%
<0.1%
NebraskaNotre DameWashington
38.5%
<0.1%
NebraskaNotre DamePenn St
38.1%
<0.1%
Notre DamePenn StWisconsin
37.5%
<0.1%
Notre DameRutgersWashington
36.4%
<0.1%
MarylandMinnesotaNotre Dame
34.6%
<0.1%
MichiganMinnesotaNotre Dame
34.2%
0.1%
MichiganNotre DameRutgers
33.3%
<0.1%
NebraskaNotre DameWisconsin
33.3%
<0.1%
MichiganUCLAUtah St
33.3%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNotre DamePenn St
32.5%
<0.1%
Notre DamePenn StUCLA
32.1%
<0.1%
MarylandNotre DamePenn St
32.0%
0.1%
MichiganNebraskaNotre Dame
30.8%
0.1%
Notre DameWashingtonWisconsin
30.8%
<0.1%
MichiganUtah StWashington
30.6%
<0.1%
MarylandMichiganUtah St
30.4%
<0.1%
MichiganNotre DameUCLA
29.3%
0.2%
MichiganNotre DameWisconsin
26.4%
0.1%
MarylandNebraskaNotre Dame
26.3%
<0.1%
Utah StWashingtonWisconsin
25.0%
<0.1%
MarylandMichiganNotre Dame
22.4%
0.6%
MichiganMinnesotaUtah St
22.2%
<0.1%
Notre DamePenn StWashington
21.9%
0.2%
Penn StUCLAUtah St
20.0%
<0.1%
MichiganNotre DameWashington
18.3%
0.7%
MichiganNotre DamePenn St
14.6%
0.7%
Penn StUtah StWashington
14.3%
<0.1%
MarylandNebraskaWisconsin
12.5%
<0.1%
MichiganPenn StUtah St
8.8%
<0.1%
MarylandPenn StRutgers
6.7%
<0.1%
MichiganRutgersWisconsin
6.7%
<0.1%
MichiganUCLAWisconsin
4.2%
<0.1%
MichiganMinnesotaNebraska
3.3%
<0.1%
Penn StWashingtonWisconsin
2.6%
<0.1%
MichiganMinnesotaWashington
2.1%
0.1%
MichiganNebraskaUCLA
2.1%
<0.1%
MarylandPenn StWashington
1.6%
0.1%
MichiganPenn StWisconsin
1.6%
0.1%
MarylandMichiganUCLA
1.3%
0.1%
MichiganNebraskaWashington
0.9%
0.1%
MichiganMinnesotaPenn St
0.8%
0.1%
Any 4 losses
3.9%
3.8%
Notre DameRutgersUtah StWashington
100.0%
<0.1%
MarylandNebraskaNotre DameUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNotre DameRutgersUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameRutgersUtah StWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameUCLAUtah StWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNotre DameUtah StWashington
83.3%
<0.1%
NebraskaNotre DameUtah StWashington
75.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameUCLAUtah StWashington
66.7%
<0.1%
MarylandNotre DameUCLAUtah St
55.6%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNotre DamePenn StUtah St
50.0%
<0.1%
MarylandNotre DameUtah StWisconsin
50.0%
<0.1%
Notre DamePenn StRutgersUtah St
50.0%
<0.1%
MarylandNotre DamePenn StUtah St
42.1%
<0.1%
Notre DameUtah StWashingtonWisconsin
40.0%
<0.1%
MarylandNotre DameUtah StWashington
35.0%
<0.1%
MarylandMinnesotaNotre DameUtah St
33.3%
<0.1%
MichiganNotre DameUCLAUtah St
30.0%
<0.1%
MichiganNotre DameUtah StWisconsin
28.6%
<0.1%
MarylandMichiganNotre DameUtah St
26.6%
<0.1%
Notre DamePenn StUtah StWisconsin
25.0%
<0.1%
Notre DamePenn StUtah StWashington
19.1%
<0.1%
MichiganNotre DameUtah StWashington
16.7%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNotre DameRutgersUCLA
16.7%
<0.1%
Notre DamePenn StUCLAUtah St
16.7%
<0.1%
MichiganNotre DamePenn StUtah St
14.3%
<0.1%
MichiganMinnesotaNotre DameUtah St
13.8%
<0.1%
MarylandNebraskaNotre DameRutgers
9.1%
<0.1%
MarylandNotre DameUCLAWisconsin
9.1%
<0.1%
MichiganMinnesotaUtah StWashington
8.3%
<0.1%
MichiganNebraskaNotre DameUtah St
8.3%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNebraskaNotre DameWashington
7.7%
<0.1%
MarylandMinnesotaNotre DameUCLA
7.1%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNotre DameWashingtonWisconsin
5.6%
<0.1%
NebraskaNotre DameWashingtonWisconsin
5.6%
<0.1%
MichiganUCLAUtah StWashington
4.5%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNotre DameUCLAWashington
3.3%
<0.1%
MichiganMinnesotaNebraskaNotre Dame
2.9%
<0.1%
MarylandMinnesotaNotre DamePenn St
2.8%
<0.1%
NebraskaNotre DamePenn StWashington
2.8%
<0.1%
MarylandMinnesotaNotre DameWashington
2.3%
<0.1%
MarylandNotre DameUCLAWashington
2.1%
0.1%
MichiganMinnesotaNotre DameUCLA
2.0%
0.1%
MarylandNotre DamePenn StUCLA
1.9%
0.1%
MarylandMichiganNotre DameRutgers
1.6%
0.1%
MarylandMichiganUtah StWashington
1.6%
<0.1%
MichiganNebraskaNotre DameWashington
1.3%
0.3%
MarylandNotre DameWashingtonWisconsin
1.3%
<0.1%
MarylandMichiganNotre DameWisconsin
1.2%
0.3%
MinnesotaNotre DamePenn StWashington
1.2%
<0.1%
MichiganNotre DameUCLAWisconsin
0.9%
0.1%
MichiganMinnesotaNotre DamePenn St
0.8%
0.4%
MarylandMichiganNotre DameUCLA
0.8%
0.4%
MichiganNotre DameUCLAWashington
0.8%
0.5%
MarylandMichiganMinnesotaNotre Dame
0.7%
0.3%
Notre DamePenn StUCLAWashington
0.7%
0.1%

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

USCCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com