Hawai'iRainbow Warriors

1-1 T1st (0-0) in MWC

Data from 2024-09-02 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.4%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
0	8/24	vsDelaware StateDSU	W35-14
1	8/31	vsUCLAUCLA	L13-16
3	9/14	@Sam HoustonSHSU	Win prob:19%
4	9/21	vsNorthern IowaUNI	Win prob:90%
6	10/05	@San Diego StateSDSU	Win prob:21%
7	10/12	vsBoise StateBOIS	Win prob:13%
8	10/19	@Washington StateWSU	Win prob:12%
9	10/26	vsNevadaNEV	Win prob:54%
10	11/02	@Fresno StateFRES	Win prob:11%
11	11/09	vsUNLVUNLV	Win prob:20%
12	11/16	@Utah StateUSU	Win prob:29%
14	11/30	vsNew MexicoUNM	Win prob:60%

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
7-0	0.0%	100.0%
6-1	0.1%	90.2%
5-2	1.5%	21.8%
4-3	8.1%	0.1%
3-4	23.5%	0%
2-5	35.4%	0%
1-6	24.8%	0%
0-7	6.6%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

32.6%

23.3%

18.6%

14.0%

11.6%

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
IdahoIDHO@WyomingWYO	0.4% (+0.0%)	0.4% (+0.0%)
Utah StateUSU@USCUSC	0.5% (+0.0%)	0.4% (+0.0%)
Oregon StateORST@San Diego StateSDSU	0.4% (+0.0%)	0.4% (-0.0%)
Sacramento StateSAC@Fresno StateFRES	0.5% (+0.0%)	0.4% (+0.0%)
Georgia SouthernGASO@NevadaNEV	0.4% (-0.0%)	0.4% (+0.0%)
Northern ColoradoUNCO@Colorado StateCSU	0.4% (-0.0%)	0.4% (+0.0%)
Utah TechUTU@UNLVUNLV	0.4% (-0.1%)	0.5% (+0.0%)
San José StateSJSU@Air ForceAF	0.4% (-0.0%)	0.5% (+0.0%)
Boise StateBOIS@OregonORE	0.5% (+0.1%)	0.4% (-0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Idaho

USC

San Diego State

Nevada

Northern Colorado

Utah Tech

San José State

Oregon

CCG: 20.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Wyoming

Oregon State

Colorado State

UNLV

CCG: 0.5% • Scenario: 53.4%

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Any 1 loss

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

85.8%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

83.3%

<0.1%

80.0%

<0.1%

80.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

Any 3 losses

36.9%

0.4%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

93.8%

<0.1%

85.2%

<0.1%

77.8%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

57.1%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

40.0%

<0.1%

40.0%

<0.1%

40.0%

<0.1%

40.0%

<0.1%

37.0%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

29.4%

<0.1%

29.4%

<0.1%

25.9%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

23.1%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

15.4%

<0.1%

12.8%

<0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

9.1%

<0.1%

4.3%

<0.1%

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com