Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
4.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L7-48 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:50% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:27% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:28% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:49% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:20% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:59% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:60% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:55% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:22% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:21% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 6-1 | 1.6% | 94.3% |
| 5-2 | 8.3% | 28.3% |
| 4-3 | 21.9% | 0.2% |
| 3-4 | 31.4% | 0% |
| 2-5 | 24.9% | 0% |
| 1-6 | 10.1% | 0% |
| 0-7 | 1.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 3.8% (-0.2%) | 4.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 3.9% (-0.1%) | 4.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.0% (+0.1%) | 3.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 3.9% (-0.1%) | 4.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.0% (+0.0%) | 4.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.3% (+0.3%) | 4.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.0% (+0.0%) | 4.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 3.8% (-0.2%) | 4.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 4.1% (+0.1%) | 4.0% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 4.2% • Scenario: 49.7%
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
95.5%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
75.5%
0.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%93.1%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.6%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
51.4%
2.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.4%
0.1%93.1%
<0.1%93.1%
<0.1%91.8%
0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.7%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%36.6%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.6%
<0.1%32.4%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%29.0%
<0.1%28.9%
<0.1%28.3%
<0.1%25.9%
0.1%25.8%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.2%
<0.1%20.8%
0.1%19.4%
0.1%17.0%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02