Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
32.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W27-7 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:39% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:56% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:77% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:69% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:28% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:45% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:80% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:74% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:42% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:87% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-0 | 3.8% | 100.0% |
| 6-1 | 17.3% | 95.9% |
| 5-2 | 31.4% | 37.0% |
| 4-3 | 28.5% | 0.4% |
| 3-4 | 14.5% | 0% |
| 2-5 | 4.0% | 0% |
| 1-6 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 0-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 31.3% (-0.8%) | 32.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 31.7% (-0.4%) | 32.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 32.0% (-0.1%) | 32.3% (+0.2%) | |
| 32.3% (+0.2%) | 32.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 32.0% (-0.1%) | 32.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 32.1% (+0.0%) | 32.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 31.0% (-1.1%) | 32.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 34.0% (+1.9%) | 30.9% (-1.2%) | |
| 32.5% (+0.4%) | 32.0% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Idaho
Utah State
San Diego State
Sacramento State
Georgia Southern
Northern ColoradoCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
San José StateCCG: 34.0% • Scenario: 38.5%
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.3%Any 1 loss
98.1%
2.7%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
0.8%
100.0%
0.4%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%99.2%
0.1%97.7%
0.1%97.4%
0.4%
95.5%
0.2%
92.5%
0.4%Any 2 losses
83.0%
10.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
1.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.5%
0.2%99.5%
0.2%99.3%
0.3%98.8%
<0.1%98.6%
0.4%98.4%
<0.1%97.8%
1.0%97.4%
0.7%97.3%
0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.9%
0.6%93.6%
0.4%92.4%
0.6%91.2%
0.1%91.1%
0.9%90.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.5%
<0.1%57.1%
0.2%56.5%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%54.8%
<0.1%53.6%
0.1%47.7%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%46.8%
0.2%41.6%
0.1%40.6%
0.1%35.1%
<0.1%34.6%
0.1%31.1%
<0.1%26.5%
0.3%26.2%
0.3%26.1%
0.5%Any 3 losses
60.7%
19.2%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.6%
0.3%99.3%
0.4%98.9%
0.2%98.0%
0.5%97.8%
<0.1%97.6%
0.1%97.2%
<0.1%97.1%
1.7%96.8%
<0.1%96.3%
0.1%95.9%
0.3%95.7%
<0.1%95.5%
0.9%95.1%
<0.1%94.9%
0.1%93.9%
<0.1%92.5%
1.4%92.3%
<0.1%91.3%
0.2%90.0%
0.2%89.9%
0.1%89.4%
<0.1%87.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.3%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.0%
<0.1%65.5%
<0.1%60.3%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.7%
<0.1%58.9%
0.1%57.9%
<0.1%56.9%
<0.1%54.2%
0.1%53.4%
0.4%53.3%
<0.1%53.2%
<0.1%52.6%
0.2%51.2%
0.2%50.4%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.0%
0.3%46.5%
0.1%46.2%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%46.1%
0.1%44.7%
0.3%44.4%
<0.1%43.8%
0.1%43.6%
<0.1%43.4%
0.2%43.2%
0.2%42.8%
0.2%42.4%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%42.0%
0.1%41.8%
0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.6%
0.4%41.2%
<0.1%40.0%
0.4%38.9%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%36.5%
0.3%36.4%
<0.1%35.7%
0.1%35.5%
<0.1%35.5%
<0.1%34.3%
0.1%33.7%
0.2%33.3%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.7%
0.5%28.2%
0.1%27.5%
0.9%27.4%
<0.1%26.8%
0.8%26.7%
<0.1%25.4%
1.2%24.4%
0.7%22.6%
<0.1%20.9%
0.4%20.9%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%0.6%
0.2%Any 4 losses
39.9%
18.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.6%
<0.1%98.5%
<0.1%98.1%
0.5%98.1%
0.2%98.0%
0.1%97.9%
<0.1%97.0%
0.2%96.2%
<0.1%91.7%
0.1%91.6%
0.4%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%87.4%
0.1%85.7%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%67.2%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.0%
<0.1%64.9%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%64.1%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.0%
0.2%60.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.5%
0.2%54.4%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%51.4%
0.4%51.4%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.8%
0.1%48.4%
0.7%48.1%
0.2%47.9%
0.4%47.4%
<0.1%47.3%
0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.8%
<0.1%45.8%
0.3%45.8%
<0.1%45.2%
<0.1%45.1%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%43.6%
<0.1%43.1%
0.4%42.2%
0.6%42.1%
<0.1%41.5%
<0.1%40.9%
0.5%40.3%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.5%
0.3%39.3%
<0.1%39.0%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%38.1%
0.1%38.1%
<0.1%36.8%
0.5%36.7%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.6%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%31.0%
<0.1%30.9%
<0.1%30.7%
0.1%29.7%
1.3%29.4%
<0.1%28.8%
0.4%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
0.2%27.3%
<0.1%27.1%
0.1%26.2%
<0.1%25.9%
2.0%25.4%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.8%
0.2%24.4%
<0.1%24.1%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.2%
1.0%23.2%
0.2%22.9%
0.2%22.1%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%18.1%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
0.1%1.3%
0.1%1.0%
0.1%1.0%
0.1%1.0%
0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.5%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02