Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W16-13 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:74% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:15% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:15% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:11% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:66% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:55% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:40% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:58% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:19% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:41% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:58% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.2% | 81.8% |
| 7-2 | 1.7% | 15.6% |
| 6-3 | 7.9% | 0.2% |
| 5-4 | 19.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 29.0% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 25.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 12.4% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 3.4% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.5% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.0%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.1%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.1%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.1%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.1%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.1%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.1%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Any 1 loss
86.1%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
45.3%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
20.1%
0.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%84.9%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.9%
0.1%15.2%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.9%
0.1%6.9%
0.2%5.9%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
10.3%
1.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.2%
0.1%16.1%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.9%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
0.1%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02