Conference USA Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-09-08
Conference Standings
| 1 |  LibertyLIB | 1-0 | 2-0 | 84.1% | |
| T2 |  Kennesaw StateKENN | 0-0 | 0-2 | 35.4% | |
| T2 |  New Mexico StateNMSU | 0-1 | 1-1 | 23.5% | |
| T2 |  Sam HoustonSHSU | 0-0 | 1-1 | 17.8% | |
| T2 |  Jacksonville StateJXST | 0-0 | 0-2 | 16.4% | |
| T2 |  Western KentuckyWKU | 0-0 | 1-1 | 6.9% | |
| T2 |  Middle TennesseeMTSU | 0-0 | 1-1 | 6.7% | |
| T2 |  Louisiana TechLT | 0-0 | 1-0 | 4.4% | |
| T2 |  Florida InternationalFIU | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2.8% | |
| T2 |  UTEPUTEP | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 84.1%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 83.9% (-0.2%) | 84.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 84.6% (+0.4%) | 84.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 83.9% (-0.3%) | 84.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 84.5% (+0.4%) | 83.8% (-0.4%) | |
| 84.2% (+0.0%) | 84.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 84.1% (-0.0%) | 84.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 66.0% (-18.2%) | 85.9% (+1.8%) | |
| 84.1% (-0.0%) | 84.2% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Kennesaw StateLouisiana Tech
Hawai'iWestern KentuckyUTEP
Eastern MichiganCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LibertyCCG: 85.9% • Scenario: 91.1%
Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LibertyLIB | 100% | 99.8% | 85.2% | 22.5% | 0.2% | 84.1% |
| Kennesaw StateKENN | 100% | 99.0% | 76.0% | 16.7% | 0.1% | 35.4% |
| New Mexico StateNMSU | - | 96.6% | 66.1% | 13.9% | 0.1% | 23.5% |
| Sam HoustonSHSU | 100% | 99.6% | 75.7% | 15.5% | 0.1% | 17.8% |
| Jacksonville StateJXST | 100% | 99.4% | 75.5% | 16.3% | <0.1% | 16.4% |
| Western KentuckyWKU | 100% | 99.3% | 76.2% | 16.5% | 0.1% | 6.9% |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | 100% | 99.2% | 76.3% | 15.1% | <0.1% | 6.7% |
| Louisiana TechLT | 100% | 97.9% | 68.5% | 13.8% | 0.1% | 4.4% |
| Florida InternationalFIU | 100% | 99.1% | 75.7% | 16.8% | 0.1% | 2.8% |
| UTEPUTEP | 100% | 96.6% | 75.2% | 15.7% | 0.1% | 2.1% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LibertyLIB(1-0) | 20.0% | 37.5% | 28.4% | 11.3% | 2.5% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | - | 6.6 |
| Kennesaw StateKENN(0-0) | 2.0% | 10.6% | 23.8% | 29.1% | 21.3% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 5.0 |
| New Mexico StateNMSU(0-1) | - | 5.5% | 20.7% | 31.8% | 26.2% | 12.2% | 3.1% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 4.7 |
| Sam HoustonSHSU(0-0) | 0.4% | 3.6% | 13.0% | 25.1% | 28.5% | 19.6% | 7.9% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 4.2 |
| Jacksonville StateJXST(0-0) | 0.3% | 3.1% | 11.8% | 24.5% | 28.8% | 20.6% | 8.6% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 4.1 |
| Western KentuckyWKU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.8% | 4.8% | 14.9% | 27.1% | 28.5% | 17.5% | 5.7% | 0.8% | 3.4 |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.9% | 4.7% | 14.0% | 25.3% | 27.9% | 19.1% | 6.9% | 1.1% | 3.4 |
| Louisiana TechLT(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.5% | 3.3% | 11.3% | 22.9% | 29.2% | 22.0% | 9.2% | 1.6% | 3.1 |
| Florida InternationalFIU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 7.3% | 18.9% | 29.0% | 26.7% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 2.8 |
| UTEPUTEP(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 6.3% | 17.0% | 28.6% | 28.1% | 15.2% | 3.5% | 2.7 |
Data from 2024-09-08