Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
84.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W41-24 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W30-24 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:91% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:77% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:60% | |
| 7 | 10/08 | Win prob:89% | |
| 9 | 10/23 | Win prob:63% | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:81% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:79% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:91% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:86% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:70% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 20.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 37.5% | 99.8% |
| 6-2 | 28.4% | 85.2% |
| 5-3 | 11.3% | 22.5% |
| 4-4 | 2.5% | 0.2% |
| 3-5 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 83.9% (-0.2%) | 84.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 84.6% (+0.4%) | 84.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 83.9% (-0.3%) | 84.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 84.5% (+0.4%) | 83.8% (-0.4%) | |
| 84.2% (+0.0%) | 84.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 84.1% (-0.0%) | 84.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 66.0% (-18.2%) | 85.9% (+1.8%) | |
| 84.1% (-0.0%) | 84.2% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Kennesaw State
Louisiana Tech
Hawai'i
Western Kentucky
UTEP
Eastern MichiganCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LibertyCCG: 85.9% • Scenario: 91.1%
Data from 2024-09-08
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
8.5%Any 1 loss
99.8%
24.6%
100.0%
1.1%
100.0%
5.5%
100.0%
2.5%
100.0%
0.9%100.0%
0.8%100.0%
1.3%
100.0%
2.3%
99.8%
1.9%
99.8%
3.6%99.4%
4.8%Any 2 losses
94.2%
31.3%100.0%
0.6%100.0%
1.7%100.0%
0.9%100.0%
0.7%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.7%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
0.6%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%99.9%
1.5%99.8%
2.4%99.8%
1.1%99.8%
0.5%99.8%
0.4%99.7%
0.4%99.7%
1.3%99.7%
1.4%99.5%
3.2%95.3%
0.1%94.6%
0.2%94.1%
0.4%94.0%
0.4%93.4%
0.3%93.3%
0.1%92.9%
0.2%92.2%
0.4%90.5%
0.5%89.6%
0.2%89.3%
0.9%88.9%
0.2%88.1%
0.5%87.9%
0.3%87.9%
0.6%87.4%
0.6%84.9%
1.2%83.7%
0.8%83.4%
0.8%77.1%
1.1%75.9%
2.1%Any 3 losses
75.0%
22.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.7%
0.4%99.7%
1.0%99.7%
0.6%99.4%
0.4%97.9%
<0.1%97.5%
<0.1%96.8%
0.1%96.7%
0.1%96.3%
<0.1%96.1%
0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.6%
<0.1%94.2%
0.1%94.2%
0.2%94.2%
<0.1%93.6%
0.2%93.6%
0.1%93.5%
<0.1%93.5%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.8%
0.3%92.7%
<0.1%92.5%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%91.9%
0.2%91.5%
0.1%91.5%
0.1%90.8%
0.1%90.6%
0.3%90.3%
<0.1%90.3%
0.2%90.2%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.2%
0.2%88.5%
<0.1%88.0%
0.4%87.7%
0.6%87.3%
0.4%87.2%
<0.1%87.1%
0.4%87.0%
0.1%86.8%
0.2%86.4%
<0.1%86.1%
0.3%85.0%
0.1%84.2%
0.2%83.9%
0.4%83.7%
0.5%83.2%
0.5%83.1%
0.8%81.0%
<0.1%78.3%
0.3%78.1%
0.2%77.2%
0.6%76.3%
0.1%76.2%
0.2%76.2%
1.4%74.7%
0.8%48.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.9%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.6%
<0.1%34.7%
<0.1%33.6%
0.1%33.3%
0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.1%
0.1%28.1%
<0.1%26.8%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.2%
0.1%25.1%
0.2%25.0%
0.3%24.7%
0.2%24.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.7%
0.1%22.8%
<0.1%21.1%
0.5%21.1%
0.2%20.8%
0.1%20.0%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
0.2%18.9%
0.3%18.4%
0.2%18.2%
<0.1%17.7%
0.3%14.6%
0.2%14.3%
<0.1%12.3%
0.5%Any 4 losses
50.0%
9.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%95.6%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.8%
0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%93.6%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.2%
0.1%92.1%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.4%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.6%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.8%
<0.1%88.6%
<0.1%88.3%
0.1%87.6%
0.2%87.5%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%86.1%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
0.3%84.6%
<0.1%84.3%
0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%80.4%
0.1%80.2%
0.2%78.6%
<0.1%77.6%
<0.1%77.1%
<0.1%76.3%
<0.1%75.6%
0.2%72.7%
0.4%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%41.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.4%
<0.1%39.1%
<0.1%37.9%
<0.1%37.0%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.2%
<0.1%35.9%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%31.1%
<0.1%30.5%
<0.1%29.8%
<0.1%29.7%
<0.1%29.5%
<0.1%28.2%
0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.8%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.6%
<0.1%26.5%
0.1%26.5%
<0.1%26.2%
<0.1%25.8%
0.2%25.6%
0.1%25.3%
<0.1%25.2%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.6%
0.1%24.5%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%23.2%
<0.1%23.1%
0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%21.5%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.2%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.7%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%19.2%
0.4%19.1%
0.2%18.8%
<0.1%18.3%
0.1%18.3%
0.2%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.8%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.0%
0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.7%
0.1%11.7%
0.3%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%0.8%
0.1%Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08