Sun Belt Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-09-08

Conference Standings


T1	James MadisonJMU	0-0	2-0	71.0%
T1	South AlabamaUSA	0-0	0-2	27.4%
T1	LouisianaUL	0-0	2-0	26.2%
T1	TroyTROY	0-0	0-2	23.1%
T1	Texas StateTXST	0-0	2-0	18.8%
T1	Coastal CarolinaCCU	0-0	2-0	14.0%
T1	App StateAPP	0-0	1-1	5.8%
T1	Arkansas StateARST	0-0	2-0	3.8%
T1	Old DominionODU	0-0	0-2	2.9%
T1	Georgia SouthernGASO	0-0	1-1	2.5%
T1	MarshallMRSH	0-0	1-1	2.0%
T1	Georgia StateGAST	0-0	1-1	1.7%
T1	UL MonroeULM	0-0	2-0	0.4%
T1	Southern MissUSM	0-0	1-1	0.2%

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Matchups

119.5%

218.7%

316.3%

413.4%

53.8%

63.7%

73.4%

82.7%

92.6%

101.6%

111.6%

121.3%

131.1%

140.8%

150.7%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 71.0%

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Northwestern StateNWST@South AlabamaUSA	71.4% (+0.3%)	71.0% (-0.0%)
Arizona StateASU@Texas StateTXST	70.9% (-0.2%)	71.2% (+0.1%)
Arkansas StateARST@MichiganMICH	71.8% (+0.8%)	71.0% (-0.0%)
TroyTROY@IowaIOWA	71.1% (+0.0%)	71.0% (-0.0%)
South FloridaUSF@Southern MissUSM	71.0% (-0.0%)	71.2% (+0.1%)
Coastal CarolinaCCU@TempleTEM	71.1% (+0.0%)	70.9% (-0.2%)
VanderbiltVAN@Georgia StateGAST	71.3% (+0.2%)	71.0% (-0.1%)
Virginia TechVT@Old DominionODU	70.9% (-0.2%)	71.5% (+0.4%)
South Carolina StateSCST@Georgia SouthernGASO	72.0% (+0.9%)	71.0% (-0.1%)
App StateAPP@East CarolinaECU	71.2% (+0.2%)	70.9% (-0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for

Northwestern State

Arkansas State

Southern Miss

South Carolina State

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Old Dominion

CCG: 71.5% • Scenario: 30.3%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team	8-0	7-1	6-2	5-3	4-4	3-5	Overall
James MadisonJMU	100%	79.2%	30.3%	7.4%	1.2%	-	71.0%
South AlabamaUSA	100%	69.1%	30.4%	8.4%	1.2%	-	27.4%
LouisianaUL	100%	74.1%	40.4%	13.7%	2.2%	<0.1%	26.2%
TroyTROY	100%	67.4%	30.4%	9.0%	1.6%	-	23.1%
Texas StateTXST	100%	65.8%	24.4%	5.8%	0.9%	-	18.8%
Coastal CarolinaCCU	100%	58.9%	30.4%	12.0%	2.2%	-	14.0%
App StateAPP	100%	69.3%	38.5%	13.7%	2.3%	<0.1%	5.8%
Arkansas StateARST	100%	69.6%	24.5%	5.9%	0.8%	-	3.8%
Old DominionODU	100%	64.0%	28.5%	9.1%	1.4%	-	2.9%
Georgia SouthernGASO	100%	74.0%	39.9%	15.9%	2.6%	-	2.5%
MarshallMRSH	100%	46.0%	10.9%	2.0%	0.2%	-	2.0%
Georgia StateGAST	100%	59.6%	26.7%	7.4%	1.0%	<0.1%	1.7%
UL MonroeULM	-	66.7%	38.0%	18.1%	3.3%	-	0.4%
Southern MissUSM	-	100%	50.0%	15.8%	2.6%	<0.1%	0.2%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

Final Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team	8-0	7-1	6-2	5-3	4-4	3-5	2-6	1-7	0-8	Avg Wins
James MadisonJMU(0-0)	32.6%	40.2%	20.4%	5.8%	0.9%	0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	7.0
South AlabamaUSA(0-0)	4.0%	17.3%	29.7%	27.9%	15.3%	4.9%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%	5.5
TroyTROY(0-0)	2.7%	13.4%	27.6%	29.9%	18.3%	6.5%	1.3%	0.1%	<0.1%	5.3
Texas StateTXST(0-0)	2.2%	12.2%	27.2%	30.4%	19.2%	7.1%	1.5%	0.2%	0.0%	5.2
LouisianaUL(0-0)	2.3%	12.1%	25.9%	29.6%	19.9%	8.1%	1.8%	0.3%	<0.1%	5.1
Coastal CarolinaCCU(0-0)	0.7%	5.9%	18.7%	29.9%	26.1%	13.7%	4.2%	0.7%	<0.1%	4.6
MarshallMRSH(0-0)	<0.1%	1.4%	7.5%	19.9%	29.4%	25.5%	12.4%	3.4%	0.3%	3.8
Arkansas StateARST(0-0)	0.1%	1.2%	6.5%	18.0%	28.8%	26.9%	14.2%	3.9%	0.4%	3.7
App StateAPP(0-0)	<0.1%	1.0%	5.6%	16.4%	27.6%	27.7%	15.9%	5.0%	0.7%	3.5
Old DominionODU(0-0)	<0.1%	0.6%	3.7%	12.1%	24.3%	29.3%	20.6%	8.1%	1.3%	3.2
Georgia StateGAST(0-0)	<0.1%	0.3%	2.3%	9.5%	21.9%	29.8%	23.9%	10.5%	1.8%	3.0
Georgia SouthernGASO(0-0)	<0.1%	0.2%	1.8%	7.1%	18.9%	29.4%	26.8%	13.1%	2.7%	2.8
UL MonroeULM(0-0)	0.0%	<0.1%	0.1%	0.9%	5.1%	17.4%	33.6%	32.5%	10.4%	1.8
Southern MissUSM(0-0)	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.5%	3.8%	14.2%	31.0%	34.8%	15.7%	1.6

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com