TroyTrojans

0-2 T1st (0-0) in SBC

Data from 2024-09-08 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

23.1%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsNevadaNEV	L26-28
2	9/07	@MemphisMEM	L17-38
3	9/14	@IowaIOWA	Win prob:45%
4	9/21	vsFlorida A&MFAMU	Win prob:90%
5	9/28	vsUL MonroeULM	Win prob:90%
6	10/03	vsTexas StateTXST	Win prob:62%
8	10/15	@South AlabamaUSA	Win prob:42%
9	10/26	@Arkansas StateARST	Win prob:66%
10	11/02	vsCoastal CarolinaCCU	Win prob:63%
12	11/16	@Georgia SouthernGASO	Win prob:69%
13	11/23	@LouisianaUL	Win prob:44%
14	11/30	vsSouthern MissUSM	Win prob:91%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	2.7%	100.0%
7-1	13.4%	67.4%
6-2	27.6%	30.4%
5-3	29.9%	9.0%
4-4	18.3%	1.6%
3-5	6.5%	0%
2-6	1.3%	0%
1-7	0.1%	0%
0-8	0.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

73.2%

15.2%

5.7%

3.1%

2.8%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Northwestern StateNWST@South AlabamaUSA	23.6% (+0.4%)	23.1% (-0.1%)
Arizona StateASU@Texas StateTXST	23.3% (+0.1%)	23.1% (-0.1%)
Arkansas StateARST@MichiganMICH	23.0% (-0.1%)	23.2% (+0.0%)
TroyTROY@IowaIOWA	23.1% (-0.1%)	23.2% (+0.1%)
South FloridaUSF@Southern MissUSM	23.3% (+0.2%)	22.7% (-0.4%)
Coastal CarolinaCCU@TempleTEM	23.1% (-0.0%)	23.4% (+0.2%)
VanderbiltVAN@Georgia StateGAST	23.2% (+0.1%)	23.1% (-0.0%)
Virginia TechVT@Old DominionODU	23.2% (+0.0%)	23.1% (-0.1%)
South Carolina StateSCST@Georgia SouthernGASO	22.8% (-0.4%)	23.2% (+0.0%)
App StateAPP@East CarolinaECU	23.2% (+0.1%)	23.1% (-0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for

Northwestern State

Arkansas State

Troy

Southern Miss

Temple

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Michigan

Iowa

Virginia Tech

Georgia Southern

App State

CCG: 24.1% • Scenario: 15.5%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

1.1%

Any 1 loss

74.0%

6.9%

100.0%

0.4%

100.0%

0.7%

100.0%

1.3%

100.0%

0.1%

99.0%

0.1%

98.5%

0.1%

89.9%

0.5%

56.9%

0.6%

52.1%

1.4%

47.8%

1.6%

Any 2 losses

45.5%

18.6%

100.0%

0.6%

100.0%

0.8%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

0.3%

98.5%

<0.1%

98.3%

0.1%

97.5%

0.1%

96.1%

<0.1%

91.0%

0.3%

90.5%

0.7%

87.7%

0.3%

87.5%

<0.1%

57.8%

0.4%

56.6%

0.9%

54.9%

<0.1%

54.7%

0.3%

54.6%

0.1%

54.0%

0.8%

53.2%

0.7%

52.4%

1.6%

51.2%

0.9%

50.5%

0.2%

50.2%

0.7%

48.5%

1.8%

35.7%

<0.1%

34.6%

<0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

23.9%

<0.1%

18.6%

0.1%

17.2%

<0.1%

16.3%

0.1%

11.5%

0.2%

10.3%

0.4%

8.9%

0.1%

7.0%

0.8%

5.8%

0.7%

1.9%

0.9%

1.8%

1.9%

1.2%

0.8%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com