Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
42.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W30-10 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L12-31 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:97% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:78% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:94% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:66% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:89% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:96% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:61% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:92% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:94% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:31% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 6.8% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 27.3% | 89.8% |
| 7-2 | 36.0% | 29.4% |
| 6-3 | 21.8% | 0.8% |
| 5-4 | 6.7% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 1.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 42.1% (+0.0%) | 41.8% (-0.2%) | |
| 42.0% (-0.1%) | 42.5% (+0.4%) | |
| 42.0% (-0.0%) | 42.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 41.6% (-0.4%) | 42.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 42.1% (+0.1%) | 42.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 41.9% (-0.1%) | 42.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 42.0% (-0.1%) | 42.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 42.2% (+0.2%) | 42.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 41.8% (-0.2%) | 42.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 42.4% (+0.4%) | 42.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 41.7% (-0.3%) | 42.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 43.4% (+1.4%) | 41.5% (-0.5%) | |
| 42.1% (+0.0%) | 41.8% (-0.3%) |
Data from 2024-09-08
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
6.5%Any 1 loss
89.9%
26.6%
100.0%
0.3%
98.8%
0.4%
98.6%
0.5%
98.0%
0.3%
97.7%
0.4%
97.2%
0.9%
96.0%
1.9%
95.6%
3.4%
91.1%
4.0%
85.9%
14.6%Any 2 losses
31.0%
35.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.4%
0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%91.2%
0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.5%
0.5%82.8%
<0.1%79.4%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%72.9%
<0.1%72.4%
<0.1%60.9%
0.1%59.1%
0.4%58.3%
<0.1%56.1%
0.2%54.5%
0.1%54.3%
0.3%52.9%
<0.1%52.2%
0.3%51.5%
0.1%50.7%
0.2%50.5%
0.2%49.6%
0.3%48.7%
0.9%45.6%
0.2%45.3%
0.5%45.0%
1.2%44.5%
0.9%44.3%
0.3%42.5%
0.6%42.1%
0.2%38.7%
1.9%36.3%
1.0%30.6%
1.1%27.8%
2.1%26.2%
7.6%25.2%
4.2%15.4%
9.3%Any 3 losses
4.5%
11.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%55.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.6%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.1%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%27.6%
<0.1%25.6%
0.3%25.0%
<0.1%23.8%
0.1%22.6%
<0.1%17.2%
0.3%16.7%
<0.1%16.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%4.9%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.6%
0.1%3.5%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.0%
0.4%1.8%
0.3%1.7%
0.5%1.6%
0.6%1.5%
0.1%1.4%
0.7%1.4%
0.6%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
0.3%1.1%
0.9%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.5%0.9%
0.3%0.8%
0.3%0.6%
0.6%0.6%
0.3%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.5%0.5%
1.1%0.5%
0.4%Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08