Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
26.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W40-10 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W34-10 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:56% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:61% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:84% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:72% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:45% | |
| 10 | 10/29 | Win prob:44% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:77% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:55% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:56% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:81% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 2.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 12.1% | 74.1% |
| 6-2 | 25.9% | 40.4% |
| 5-3 | 29.6% | 13.7% |
| 4-4 | 19.9% | 2.2% |
| 3-5 | 8.1% | 0.0% |
| 2-6 | 1.8% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 25.9% (-0.3%) | 26.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 26.0% (-0.2%) | 26.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 27.0% (+0.8%) | 26.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 26.3% (+0.1%) | 26.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 26.1% (-0.1%) | 26.6% (+0.4%) | |
| 26.3% (+0.0%) | 25.9% (-0.4%) | |
| 26.3% (+0.1%) | 26.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 26.2% (-0.0%) | 26.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 25.8% (-0.4%) | 26.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 26.5% (+0.3%) | 26.0% (-0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Northwestern State
Arkansas State
Vanderbilt
South Carolina State
App StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
South Alabama
TroyApp StateCCG: 27.0% • Scenario: 18.9%
Data from 2024-09-08
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.8%Any 1 loss
79.4%
5.3%100.0%
0.3%
100.0%
0.6%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
0.5%
100.0%
1.0%
97.9%
0.2%87.9%
0.3%
61.8%
1.0%49.5%
0.7%46.4%
0.6%Any 2 losses
54.8%
15.2%100.0%
0.6%100.0%
0.7%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.6%
0.2%99.4%
0.2%98.6%
0.1%98.3%
0.1%90.6%
0.1%88.4%
0.2%87.7%
0.1%87.5%
0.3%64.3%
1.3%63.7%
0.6%62.3%
0.4%61.0%
0.8%54.7%
0.5%54.6%
0.4%51.9%
0.3%50.6%
0.8%49.0%
0.2%48.7%
0.8%46.7%
0.5%44.2%
<0.1%42.5%
0.4%39.4%
<0.1%38.0%
<0.1%25.3%
0.3%18.6%
0.2%14.9%
0.1%14.4%
0.1%8.8%
0.1%8.6%
0.1%8.4%
0.3%6.3%
0.2%4.3%
0.2%2.3%
0.8%1.9%
0.8%1.6%
0.5%Any 3 losses
36.1%
22.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.3%
0.1%99.2%
0.1%99.2%
0.1%98.9%
<0.1%98.8%
0.2%97.1%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%92.7%
<0.1%88.6%
0.1%85.7%
0.1%84.9%
0.2%84.9%
0.1%67.2%
0.3%66.5%
1.0%66.4%
0.8%65.4%
0.3%65.1%
0.5%60.7%
<0.1%60.7%
<0.1%58.0%
0.3%57.9%
0.5%57.5%
0.6%56.1%
0.2%55.4%
0.5%53.8%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%51.1%
0.5%50.5%
0.3%48.8%
0.2%47.5%
0.3%46.7%
0.6%46.2%
0.2%45.8%
0.3%44.2%
0.2%36.8%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.4%
<0.1%31.0%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%23.8%
0.2%22.4%
0.2%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.5%
<0.1%17.9%
0.3%17.1%
<0.1%17.0%
0.2%16.7%
0.2%16.1%
0.1%15.2%
<0.1%14.9%
<0.1%14.1%
0.2%13.9%
0.1%13.6%
0.1%13.4%
<0.1%13.4%
0.1%13.4%
0.1%12.6%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.3%
0.4%11.2%
0.1%10.8%
0.2%10.8%
0.1%10.2%
0.2%8.9%
0.2%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%7.8%
0.1%7.6%
0.1%7.1%
0.2%7.0%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%5.3%
0.1%5.3%
0.3%4.4%
0.3%3.1%
0.2%3.0%
0.2%2.9%
0.3%2.0%
0.5%1.9%
1.0%1.9%
0.6%1.9%
1.0%1.8%
0.6%1.4%
0.6%1.3%
0.4%1.0%
0.6%0.9%
0.3%Any 4 losses
22.8%
16.8%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.0%
0.1%98.6%
<0.1%98.0%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%89.0%
0.1%88.5%
<0.1%88.5%
0.1%66.3%
0.6%65.9%
0.3%64.4%
0.3%62.5%
<0.1%61.9%
0.2%56.3%
<0.1%55.8%
0.2%54.0%
<0.1%53.2%
0.4%52.7%
0.2%50.5%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.8%
0.4%47.7%
0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.5%
<0.1%45.8%
0.1%44.7%
0.2%43.8%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.3%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.6%
<0.1%25.4%
0.2%24.2%
<0.1%23.4%
<0.1%22.9%
<0.1%22.8%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%21.9%
0.1%20.8%
<0.1%19.6%
0.2%19.2%
0.1%18.6%
<0.1%18.3%
0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%16.9%
0.2%16.2%
<0.1%15.8%
0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%14.2%
0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.7%
<0.1%13.5%
0.1%13.2%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.1%
0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.3%
<0.1%10.4%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
0.3%9.5%
0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.6%
0.1%8.3%
0.2%8.1%
<0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.1%
0.1%7.0%
0.2%6.8%
<0.1%6.7%
0.1%6.6%
0.2%5.7%
0.2%5.1%
0.4%4.8%
0.1%4.5%
0.1%3.7%
0.4%3.4%
<0.1%3.3%
0.2%3.2%
<0.1%3.0%
0.5%2.9%
0.6%2.9%
0.2%2.9%
0.4%2.6%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
0.8%2.3%
0.6%2.1%
0.2%1.8%
0.8%1.7%
0.2%1.6%
0.2%1.5%
0.4%1.3%
0.4%1.3%
0.2%0.9%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08