UL MonroeWarhawks

2-0 T1st (0-0) in SBC

Data from 2024-09-08 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.4%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/29	vsJackson StateJKST	W30-14
2	9/07	vsUABUAB	W32-6
4	9/21	@TexasTEX	Win prob:1%
5	9/28	@TroyTROY	Win prob:10%
6	10/05	vsJames MadisonJMU	Win prob:8%
7	10/12	vsSouthern MissUSM	Win prob:62%
9	10/26	@South AlabamaUSA	Win prob:10%
10	11/02	@MarshallMRSH	Win prob:25%
11	11/09	vsTexas StateTXST	Win prob:20%
12	11/16	@AuburnAUB	Win prob:12%
13	11/23	@Arkansas StateARST	Win prob:23%
14	11/30	vsLouisianaUL	Win prob:19%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	0%	0%
7-1	0.0%	66.7%
6-2	0.1%	38.0%
5-3	0.9%	18.1%
4-4	5.1%	3.3%
3-5	17.4%	0%
2-6	33.6%	0%
1-7	32.5%	0%
0-8	10.4%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

70.3%

16.2%

8.1%

2.7%

2.7%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Northwestern StateNWST@South AlabamaUSA	0.4% (+0.1%)	0.4% (-0.0%)
Arizona StateASU@Texas StateTXST	0.4% (-0.0%)	0.4% (+0.0%)
Arkansas StateARST@MichiganMICH	0.4% (-0.0%)	0.4% (+0.0%)
TroyTROY@IowaIOWA	0.4% (+0.0%)	0.4% (+0.0%)
South FloridaUSF@Southern MissUSM	0.4% (-0.0%)	0.4% (+0.0%)
Coastal CarolinaCCU@TempleTEM	0.4% (+0.0%)	0.3% (-0.1%)
VanderbiltVAN@Georgia StateGAST	0.4% (-0.0%)	0.4% (+0.0%)
Virginia TechVT@Old DominionODU	0.4% (+0.0%)	0.4% (+0.0%)
South Carolina StateSCST@Georgia SouthernGASO	0.4% (-0.0%)	0.4% (+0.0%)
App StateAPP@East CarolinaECU	0.4% (+0.0%)	0.4% (-0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Texas State

Arkansas State

Iowa

Temple

Vanderbilt

South Carolina State

East Carolina

CCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Michigan

Troy

South Florida

Coastal Carolina

App State

CCG: 0.5% • Scenario: 13.4%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 3 losses

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

Any 4 losses

50.4%

0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

71.4%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

60.0%

<0.1%

55.6%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

40.0%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com