Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
40.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W52-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L27-34 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:13% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:44% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:75% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:80% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:86% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:58% | |
| 10 | 10/31 | Win prob:87% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:96% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:65% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:50% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 8.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 26.0% | 90.3% |
| 6-2 | 33.4% | 26.0% |
| 5-3 | 22.3% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 8.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 40.8% (+0.6%) | 40.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 40.1% (-0.2%) | 40.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 40.2% (-0.0%) | 40.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 40.5% (+0.2%) | 40.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 40.5% (+0.3%) | 40.1% (-0.2%) | |
| 40.4% (+0.2%) | 40.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 40.5% (+0.3%) | 40.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 40.2% (-0.0%) | 40.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 40.2% (-0.0%) | 40.7% (+0.4%) | |
| 40.5% (+0.3%) | 40.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 40.3% (+0.0%) | 40.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 40.6% (+0.4%) | 40.1% (-0.1%) |
Data from 2024-09-08
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.5%Any 1 loss
97.2%
5.2%
100.0%
3.0%
100.0%
0.7%
95.5%
0.3%
95.1%
<0.1%
94.7%
0.1%
94.6%
<0.1%
93.3%
<0.1%
91.3%
0.4%
90.1%
0.2%
85.3%
0.5%Any 2 losses
85.3%
17.7%100.0%
3.9%100.0%
<0.1%96.3%
0.2%96.2%
0.1%95.3%
0.5%95.3%
0.1%95.2%
0.7%95.2%
0.3%93.2%
0.5%93.1%
1.7%93.1%
0.2%92.7%
1.0%92.1%
0.4%91.9%
0.1%91.7%
2.3%83.9%
0.6%83.8%
3.1%80.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%40.6%
<0.1%37.8%
<0.1%37.3%
<0.1%37.1%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.2%
0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.0%
0.2%24.4%
<0.1%24.2%
0.1%24.1%
<0.1%23.4%
<0.1%22.9%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.6%
0.2%17.8%
0.2%16.7%
<0.1%16.0%
0.4%15.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
55.0%
27.9%100.0%
<0.1%96.0%
0.7%94.6%
0.6%93.5%
2.1%93.0%
0.9%92.3%
1.3%92.0%
0.2%91.7%
2.9%84.6%
3.9%66.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%51.8%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.6%
0.1%38.7%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%37.9%
<0.1%37.8%
<0.1%37.7%
0.3%37.5%
<0.1%37.0%
<0.1%36.8%
0.1%36.4%
0.3%36.1%
0.2%36.1%
0.1%35.8%
0.4%35.6%
<0.1%35.5%
0.3%35.4%
<0.1%34.4%
0.1%34.2%
0.5%33.3%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%30.8%
0.7%30.6%
0.2%30.2%
0.1%29.4%
0.5%28.9%
0.2%28.1%
0.6%27.9%
0.1%27.8%
0.1%27.6%
<0.1%27.6%
0.2%27.6%
0.4%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.0%
0.5%26.4%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.8%
<0.1%25.1%
1.2%25.0%
<0.1%24.7%
<0.1%23.7%
<0.1%23.7%
0.1%23.4%
1.7%22.7%
0.4%21.6%
0.8%19.9%
1.0%18.7%
0.4%18.0%
<0.1%16.5%
2.2%13.6%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08