Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
38.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W63-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W42-16 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W42-10 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:58% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:98% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:91% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:52% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:86% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:74% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:71% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:96% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 11.7% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 32.2% | 75.7% |
| 6-2 | 33.4% | 7.5% |
| 5-3 | 17.2% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 4.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 38.5% (-0.0%) | 38.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 39.8% (+1.3%) | 38.3% (-0.3%) | |
| 15.6% (-23.0%) | 55.3% (+16.7%) | |
| 45.5% (+6.9%) | 38.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 38.3% (-0.2%) | 38.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 38.2% (-0.4%) | 38.6% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Auburn
KentuckyAlabama
Mississippi State
South Alabama
Texas A&MCCG: 83.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
AlabamaCCG: 55.3% • Scenario: 57.9%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
10.5%Any 1 loss
76.5%
30.2%
100.0%
1.2%95.8%
0.4%
93.4%
0.2%
93.2%
1.0%
85.7%
1.9%
83.9%
4.4%
82.3%
3.6%
71.8%
9.6%
65.9%
7.8%Any 2 losses
14.1%
33.2%100.0%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%91.1%
0.1%85.1%
0.2%84.4%
0.5%84.1%
0.4%72.1%
1.1%68.9%
0.8%27.9%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.3%
0.2%24.9%
0.4%23.6%
0.2%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%19.1%
0.1%18.6%
0.3%17.5%
<0.1%16.4%
0.7%16.1%
<0.1%13.6%
0.6%13.5%
1.5%11.8%
0.3%11.2%
0.1%9.9%
0.4%9.7%
0.2%9.7%
0.7%8.9%
0.9%7.2%
1.2%7.1%
2.6%6.7%
3.2%6.6%
3.9%5.8%
1.6%5.4%
3.3%2.9%
7.1%Any 3 losses
7.8%
3.3%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%16.8%
0.2%16.2%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%9.0%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.8%
0.4%6.7%
0.4%6.1%
0.3%5.8%
0.3%4.3%
<0.1%3.1%
0.2%2.2%
0.8%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22