Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
5.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W51-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W38-0 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W27-21 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W30-27 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:57% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:98% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:85% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:14% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:51% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:55% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:89% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.5% | 95.8% |
| 7-1 | 14.0% | 28.4% |
| 6-2 | 32.7% | 0.4% |
| 5-3 | 32.5% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 15.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 3.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 5.5% (-0.1%) | 5.9% (+0.4%) | |
| 5.9% (+0.3%) | 5.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 4.7% (-0.9%) | 6.2% (+0.7%) | |
| 9.8% (+4.3%) | 5.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 5.5% (-0.1%) | 5.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 5.4% (-0.1%) | 5.6% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Auburn
Ole Miss
Alabama
Mississippi State
South Alabama
ArkansasCCG: 66.7% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
AlabamaCCG: 6.2% • Scenario: 57.9%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
95.8%
1.5%Any 1 loss
28.5%
13.8%
97.0%
<0.1%52.9%
0.3%
49.8%
1.2%
39.6%
1.1%33.3%
0.2%33.3%
0.2%
28.5%
1.5%23.2%
9.3%Any 2 losses
2.4%
5.1%56.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%24.2%
0.2%21.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%1.9%
0.1%1.8%
1.0%1.2%
0.2%1.1%
0.2%1.0%
0.1%1.0%
0.2%0.6%
1.6%0.6%
1.2%0.6%
0.2%25.0%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22