Sun Belt Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-09-22

Conference Standings


1	South AlabamaUSA	1-0	2-2	46.6%
T2	James MadisonJMU	0-0	3-0	81.0%
T2	LouisianaUL	0-0	2-1	21.6%
T2	Texas StateTXST	0-0	2-1	15.8%
T2	TroyTROY	0-0	1-3	14.7%
T2	Coastal CarolinaCCU	0-0	3-1	6.7%
T2	App StateAPP	0-1	2-2	3.1%
T2	Old DominionODU	0-0	0-3	2.9%
T2	Georgia StateGAST	0-0	2-1	2.6%
T2	MarshallMRSH	0-0	1-2	2.1%
T2	Georgia SouthernGASO	0-0	2-2	1.6%
T2	Arkansas StateARST	0-0	2-2	1.1%
T2	UL MonroeULM	0-0	2-1	0.2%
T2	Southern MissUSM	0-0	1-3	<0.1%

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Matchups

137.8%

217.5%

312.7%

411.9%

53.1%

61.5%

71.5%

81.3%

91.2%

101.0%

111.0%

121.0%

130.9%

140.8%

150.7%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 81.0%

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Texas StateTXST@Sam HoustonSHSU	81.0% (+0.1%)	80.8% (-0.1%)
Georgia SouthernGASO@Georgia StateGAST	80.9% (-0.0%)	81.0% (+0.0%)
LouisianaUL@Wake ForestWAKE	80.9% (-0.0%)	81.0% (+0.1%)
South AlabamaUSA@LSULSU	80.7% (-0.3%)	81.0% (+0.1%)
Ball StateBALL@James MadisonJMU	81.0% (+0.1%)	81.0% (+0.0%)
LibertyLIB@App StateAPP	81.0% (+0.0%)	80.9% (-0.1%)
Western MichiganWMU@MarshallMRSH	80.6% (-0.3%)	81.0% (+0.1%)
UL MonroeULM@TroyTROY	80.0% (-0.9%)	81.0% (+0.1%)
Old DominionODU@Bowling GreenBGSU	80.8% (-0.1%)	81.0% (+0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for

Sam Houston

Ball State

App State

Western Michigan

UL Monroe

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

LSU

Troy

CCG: 81.2% • Scenario: 68.6%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team	8-0	7-1	6-2	5-3	4-4	3-5	Overall
James MadisonJMU	100%	82.5%	33.2%	9.2%	1.4%	-	81.0%
South AlabamaUSA	100%	56.4%	11.1%	1.0%	-	-	46.6%
LouisianaUL	100%	61.8%	26.3%	6.5%	0.7%	-	21.6%
Texas StateTXST	100%	53.4%	17.7%	4.0%	0.4%	-	15.8%
TroyTROY	100%	52.0%	17.1%	4.0%	0.5%	-	14.7%
Coastal CarolinaCCU	100%	51.6%	24.7%	9.5%	1.5%	-	6.7%
App StateAPP	-	100%	62.1%	27.9%	3.7%	<0.1%	3.1%
Old DominionODU	100%	55.8%	25.4%	7.1%	1.1%	-	2.9%
Georgia StateGAST	100%	48.6%	21.7%	5.2%	0.7%	-	2.6%
MarshallMRSH	100%	37.0%	7.7%	1.2%	0.1%	-	2.1%
Georgia SouthernGASO	100%	70.3%	45.0%	15.0%	2.6%	<0.1%	1.6%
Arkansas StateARST	100%	63.6%	20.8%	4.5%	0.7%	-	1.1%
UL MonroeULM	-	100%	33.3%	12.8%	1.9%	<0.1%	0.2%
Southern MissUSM	-	-	-	7.3%	1.5%	-	<0.1%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Final Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team	8-0	7-1	6-2	5-3	4-4	3-5	2-6	1-7	0-8	Avg Wins
James MadisonJMU(0-0)	44.3%	38.5%	14.0%	2.9%	0.4%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	7.2
South AlabamaUSA(1-0)	21.2%	39.3%	27.9%	9.7%	1.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	-	6.7
LouisianaUL(0-0)	2.9%	14.6%	29.0%	29.8%	17.2%	5.4%	1.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	5.4
Texas StateTXST(0-0)	2.2%	13.3%	29.1%	31.6%	17.4%	5.5%	0.9%	<0.1%	0.0%	5.3
TroyTROY(0-0)	2.1%	12.4%	28.1%	31.4%	18.6%	6.2%	1.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	5.2
MarshallMRSH(0-0)	0.1%	2.2%	10.7%	24.2%	30.0%	21.8%	8.9%	1.9%	0.2%	4.1
Coastal CarolinaCCU(0-0)	0.2%	2.3%	10.8%	24.0%	29.8%	21.6%	9.1%	2.1%	0.2%	4.1
Georgia StateGAST(0-0)	<0.1%	0.8%	5.3%	16.3%	27.9%	28.0%	16.2%	4.9%	0.6%	3.5
Old DominionODU(0-0)	<0.1%	0.8%	4.5%	14.2%	25.9%	28.5%	18.6%	6.5%	0.9%	3.4
Arkansas StateARST(0-0)	<0.1%	0.2%	2.0%	8.9%	22.6%	32.2%	24.2%	8.7%	1.1%	3.0
App StateAPP(0-1)	-	<0.1%	1.0%	6.0%	18.7%	30.5%	27.9%	13.2%	2.6%	2.7
Georgia SouthernGASO(0-0)	0.0%	<0.1%	0.9%	4.9%	15.2%	28.0%	30.0%	16.9%	4.1%	2.5
UL MonroeULM(0-0)	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.7%	4.6%	17.6%	35.3%	33.1%	8.6%	1.8
Southern MissUSM(0-0)	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.9%	6.6%	22.8%	41.0%	28.5%	1.1

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com