UL MonroeWarhawks

2-1 T2nd (0-0) in SBC

Data from 2024-09-22 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.2%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/29	vsJackson StateJKST	W30-14
2	9/07	vsUABUAB	W32-6
4	9/21	@TexasTEX	L3-51
5	9/28	@TroyTROY	Win prob:10%
6	10/05	vsJames MadisonJMU	Win prob:6%
7	10/12	vsSouthern MissUSM	Win prob:71%
9	10/26	@South AlabamaUSA	Win prob:5%
10	11/02	@MarshallMRSH	Win prob:24%
11	11/09	vsTexas StateTXST	Win prob:17%
12	11/16	@AuburnAUB	Win prob:10%
13	11/23	@Arkansas StateARST	Win prob:29%
14	11/30	vsLouisianaUL	Win prob:17%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	0%	0%
7-1	0%	100.0%
6-2	0.1%	33.3%
5-3	0.7%	12.8%
4-4	4.6%	1.9%
3-5	17.6%	0.0%
2-6	35.3%	0%
1-7	33.1%	0%
0-8	8.6%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

81.0%

4.8%

4.8%

4.8%

4.8%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Texas StateTXST@Sam HoustonSHSU	0.2% (+0.0%)	0.2% (-0.0%)
Georgia SouthernGASO@Georgia StateGAST	0.2% (+0.0%)	0.2% (-0.0%)
LouisianaUL@Wake ForestWAKE	0.2% (-0.0%)	0.3% (+0.0%)
South AlabamaUSA@LSULSU	0.2% (+0.0%)	0.2% (+0.0%)
Ball StateBALL@James MadisonJMU	0.3% (+0.1%)	0.2% (+0.0%)
LibertyLIB@App StateAPP	0.2% (-0.0%)	0.2% (+0.0%)
Western MichiganWMU@MarshallMRSH	0.2% (-0.0%)	0.2% (+0.0%)
UL MonroeULM@TroyTROY	1.2% (+1.0%)	0.1% (-0.1%)
Old DominionODU@Bowling GreenBGSU	0.2% (+0.0%)	0.2% (+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Texas State

Georgia State

Wake Forest

South Alabama

App State

Western Michigan

UL Monroe

Old Dominion

CCG: 20.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

UL Monroe

CCG: 1.2% • Scenario: 9.9%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 3 losses

36.6%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

77.8%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com