Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
10.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/01 | L20-27 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W44-21 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W36-33 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W34-17 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:76% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:47% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:82% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:59% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:26% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:79% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:96% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:53% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 2.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 14.8% | 51.0% |
| 6-2 | 31.0% | 1.4% |
| 5-3 | 31.7% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 15.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 3.9% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 10.3% (+0.0%) | 10.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 10.4% (+0.0%) | 10.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 9.3% (-1.0%) | 11.1% (+0.7%) | |
| 14.9% (+4.5%) | 10.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 10.7% (+0.4%) | 10.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 10.5% (+0.1%) | 10.3% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Oklahoma
Kentucky
Georgia
Mississippi StateLSU
ArkansasCCG: 33.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
AlabamaCCG: 11.1% • Scenario: 57.9%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.9%
1.7%Any 1 loss
53.5%
11.9%
100.0%
0.6%
67.2%
1.3%
67.1%
2.0%48.0%
0.4%
48.0%
<0.1%
47.7%
0.5%44.5%
1.7%43.8%
5.4%Any 2 losses
7.9%
27.4%67.8%
0.4%66.8%
0.7%61.8%
<0.1%47.7%
0.1%45.6%
1.7%45.3%
0.1%40.5%
0.5%9.1%
<0.1%7.4%
0.1%6.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.7%
0.3%3.7%
0.3%3.4%
1.4%3.4%
0.4%3.1%
0.4%3.1%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
1.1%1.9%
0.5%1.4%
3.6%1.1%
0.4%1.1%
1.4%1.0%
5.9%1.0%
1.1%0.9%
0.2%0.9%
1.8%0.6%
4.6%Any 3 losses
1.4%
7.2%6.7%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.2%
0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.3%
0.3%2.4%
0.2%2.2%
<0.1%1.8%
0.4%1.8%
1.1%1.7%
0.1%1.5%
0.1%0.9%
0.5%0.9%
1.4%0.8%
1.8%0.7%
0.4%0.6%
0.3%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22