Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
14.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L26-28 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L17-38 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L21-38 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W34-12 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:90% | |
| 6 | 10/03 | Win prob:58% | |
| 8 | 10/15 | Win prob:27% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:73% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:70% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:71% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:41% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:94% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 2.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 12.4% | 52.0% |
| 6-2 | 28.1% | 17.1% |
| 5-3 | 31.4% | 4.0% |
| 4-4 | 18.6% | 0.5% |
| 3-5 | 6.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 14.9% (+0.2%) | 14.4% (-0.3%) | |
| 15.2% (+0.5%) | 14.4% (-0.3%) | |
| 14.8% (+0.0%) | 14.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 14.8% (+0.1%) | 14.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 14.1% (-0.7%) | 14.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 14.6% (-0.1%) | 15.0% (+0.3%) | |
| 14.9% (+0.2%) | 14.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 6.5% (-8.2%) | 15.6% (+0.9%) | |
| 14.9% (+0.2%) | 14.6% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Sam Houston
Louisiana
South Alabama
Ball State
Western Michigan
UL MonroeCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TroyCCG: 15.6% • Scenario: 90.1%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
2.1%Any 1 loss
52.0%
12.4%
100.0%
0.8%
100.0%
0.8%
100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%
97.1%
0.7%
55.4%
1.5%54.8%
2.9%26.6%
5.4%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22