Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
2.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L7-48 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L13-17 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L14-34 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L17-44 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W31-19 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:50% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:11% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:70% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:50% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:49% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:13% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:14% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 6-1 | 2.2% | 68.8% |
| 5-2 | 13.4% | 7.0% |
| 4-3 | 31.0% | 0.0% |
| 3-4 | 33.7% | 0% |
| 2-5 | 16.7% | 0% |
| 1-6 | 2.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 2.9% (+0.3%) | 2.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.1% (-0.5%) | 2.7% (+0.2%) | |
| 2.6% (+0.0%) | 2.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 3.1% (+0.6%) | 2.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 2.6% (+0.0%) | 2.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 3.7% (+1.1%) | 2.5% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Colorado State
Hawai'i
Air Force
Nevada
Utah StateCCG: 25.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
San Diego StateCCG: 2.7% • Scenario: 74.6%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29