BYUCougars

5-0 T1st (2-0) in B12

Data from 2024-09-29 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

25.8%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsSouthern IllinoisSIU	W41-13
2	9/06	@SMUSMU	W18-15
3	9/14	@WyomingWYO	W34-14
4	9/21	vsKansas StateKSU	W38-9
5	9/28	@BaylorBAY	W34-28
7	10/12	vsArizonaARIZ	Win prob:45%
8	10/18	vsOklahoma StateOKST	Win prob:65%
9	10/26	@UCFUCF	Win prob:52%
11	11/09	@UtahUTAH	Win prob:42%
12	11/16	vsKansasKU	Win prob:62%
13	11/23	@Arizona StateASU	Win prob:56%
14	11/30	vsHoustonHOU	Win prob:85%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	1.8%	100.0%
8-1	10.4%	95.9%
7-2	24.8%	53.2%
6-3	30.7%	2.6%
5-4	21.7%	0%
4-5	8.8%	0%
3-6	1.7%	0%
2-7	0.1%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

33.1%

31.5%

19.0%

12.5%

4.0%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
HoustonHOU@TCUTCU	26.9% (+1.1%)	25.5% (-0.3%)
KansasKU@Arizona StateASU	25.9% (+0.1%)	25.6% (-0.1%)
UCFUCF@FloridaFLA	25.8% (+0.1%)	25.7% (-0.1%)
West VirginiaWVU@Oklahoma StateOKST	25.2% (-0.6%)	26.2% (+0.4%)
BaylorBAY@Iowa StateISU	29.6% (+3.8%)	25.1% (-0.7%)
Texas TechTTU@ArizonaARIZ	24.7% (-1.1%)	26.3% (+0.5%)

Best Winner Combination for

Houston

Kansas

Florida

Oklahoma State

Baylor

Arizona

CCG: 36.0% • Scenario: 0.3%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Baylor

CCG: 29.6% • Scenario: 15.1%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

1.8%

Any 1 loss

95.9%

10.4%

98.8%

0.3%

98.2%

1.4%

97.9%

1.0%

97.8%

1.6%

97.6%

1.1%

95.6%

2.6%

91.4%

2.3%

Any 2 losses

53.2%

24.8%

73.3%

0.2%

70.4%

1.0%

68.2%

0.8%

67.7%

1.0%

66.2%

0.2%

66.1%

0.6%

66.1%

1.3%

65.7%

1.1%

65.1%

0.3%

62.1%

0.2%

59.7%

2.0%

59.2%

0.5%

57.5%

2.4%

57.1%

1.5%

56.2%

1.6%

45.1%

1.3%

43.3%

0.4%

42.4%

1.9%

40.1%

1.4%

39.9%

2.1%

36.1%

3.1%

Any 3 losses

2.6%

30.7%

7.1%

0.1%

6.3%

0.5%

5.4%

<0.1%

5.0%

0.1%

4.7%

0.2%

4.6%

0.1%

4.5%

0.6%

4.0%

0.4%

4.0%

0.2%

3.9%

0.3%

3.9%

0.8%

3.8%

0.3%

3.8%

0.8%

3.7%

1.3%

3.7%

1.2%

3.5%

1.9%

3.3%

0.9%

2.9%

0.2%

2.6%

1.5%

2.6%

1.0%

2.4%

0.4%

2.4%

1.1%

2.2%

2.0%

2.2%

1.3%

2.1%

1.3%

2.1%

1.1%

2.0%

0.4%

1.7%

2.9%

1.7%

0.2%

1.7%

2.5%

1.6%

0.8%

1.5%

0.3%

1.5%

1.7%

1.4%

1.8%

1.1%

0.5%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com