Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
58.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W52-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L27-34 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L19-34 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W41-33 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W45-10 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:89% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:94% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:68% | |
| 10 | 10/31 | Win prob:94% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:97% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:65% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:65% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 22.4% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 40.1% | 84.1% |
| 6-2 | 27.3% | 9.6% |
| 5-3 | 8.7% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 1.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 62.0% (+3.3%) | 30.9% (-27.8%) | |
| 57.6% (-1.1%) | 63.3% (+4.5%) | |
| 58.6% (-0.2%) | 58.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 58.7% (-0.0%) | 58.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 58.0% (-0.8%) | 64.5% (+5.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Tulane
Charlotte
Temple
Air Force
TulsaCCG: 76.0% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TulaneCCG: 62.0% • Scenario: 89.5%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
22.4%Any 1 loss
84.1%
40.1%95.0%
1.5%
94.6%
2.5%
94.2%
1.3%93.4%
0.7%
91.3%
10.4%
82.2%
11.8%
74.4%
11.9%Any 2 losses
9.6%
27.3%44.2%
<0.1%43.9%
0.2%41.1%
0.2%36.4%
<0.1%33.7%
<0.1%28.3%
<0.1%22.3%
1.2%21.3%
0.6%20.1%
0.7%18.6%
0.3%17.0%
0.4%15.1%
0.8%14.4%
1.4%13.5%
0.7%13.5%
1.4%12.8%
0.4%10.8%
0.7%10.8%
0.8%6.4%
5.4%5.4%
5.6%4.0%
6.3%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29