Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W41-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L6-32 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L27-37 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L18-41 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:11% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:11% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:28% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:70% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:28% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:8% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:59% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:56% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.0% | 87.5% |
| 6-2 | 0.2% | 27.1% |
| 5-3 | 2.4% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 12.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 31.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 34.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 16.4% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 2.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0% (-0.1%) | 0.5% (+0.4%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UAB
East Carolina
Temple
Air Force
TulsaCCG: 2.6% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UABCCG: 0.5% • Scenario: 10.5%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
27.4%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
85.7%
<0.1%
20.0%
<0.1%
17.6%
<0.1%
16.7%
<0.1%
6.7%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29