Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
60.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W52-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W31-12 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W56-7 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W51-3 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W35-13 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:82% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:65% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:98% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:97% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:96% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:93% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:88% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 40.5% | 99.4% |
| 7-1 | 42.2% | 46.5% |
| 6-2 | 14.7% | 1.3% |
| 5-3 | 2.4% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 64.7% (+4.6%) | 59.9% (-0.2%) | |
| 59.7% (-0.4%) | 60.9% (+0.8%) | |
| 60.2% (+0.1%) | 60.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 58.8% (-1.3%) | 61.8% (+1.7%) | |
| 59.4% (-0.7%) | 67.8% (+7.7%) | |
| 59.9% (-0.2%) | 70.0% (+9.9%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Auburn
Ole Miss
Arkansas
VanderbiltCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Texas A&MCCG: 61.8% • Scenario: 42.6%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.4%
40.5%Any 1 loss
46.5%
42.2%
66.3%
2.9%
65.5%
1.1%60.7%
0.7%58.6%
1.7%57.5%
5.4%
52.8%
8.8%
36.0%
21.6%Any 2 losses
1.7%
10.0%11.1%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.7%
0.1%6.8%
0.1%5.2%
<0.1%4.5%
0.4%4.3%
0.2%3.8%
0.2%3.8%
0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
0.3%1.9%
0.7%1.6%
1.5%1.5%
0.6%1.1%
0.9%0.9%
1.2%0.8%
0.4%0.8%
2.8%0.8%
0.3%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29