Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
2.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W51-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W16-12 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W34-19 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L15-25 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W27-21 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:18% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:79% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:32% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:90% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:61% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:32% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:36% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.3% | 99.7% |
| 6-2 | 3.5% | 54.6% |
| 5-3 | 15.6% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 32.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 32.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 14.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 2.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 2.4% (+0.2%) | 2.1% (-0.2%) | |
| 0.8% (-1.4%) | 8.8% (+6.5%) | |
| 2.2% (+0.0%) | 2.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.1% (-0.1%) | 2.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.1% (-0.1%) | 2.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.3% (+0.1%) | 2.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.8% (+0.6%) | 2.2% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Massachusetts
South Carolina
Vanderbilt
Mississippi StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OklahomaCCG: 8.8% • Scenario: 17.9%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.6%
0.3%Any 1 loss
55.0%
3.1%
100.0%
<0.1%72.5%
<0.1%
67.3%
0.2%
64.3%
0.5%
55.1%
0.5%
54.6%
0.6%
46.9%
1.2%Any 2 losses
24.9%
0.9%81.8%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.7%
<0.1%49.6%
0.1%0.7%
0.3%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06