Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W31-13 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W21-14 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W31-10 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L9-14 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L38-39 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:47% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:68% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:49% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:65% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:76% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:88% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:17% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 2.4% | 3.6% |
| 5-3 | 17.5% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 35.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 30.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 12.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 2.3% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.1%) | 0.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Stanford
NC State
LouisvilleCalifornia
Wake Forest
North CarolinaCCG: 6.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
CaliforniaCCG: 0.2% • Scenario: 47.2%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
3.7%
1.2%
3.6%
1.2%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06