Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
64.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/24 | W29-24 | |
| 1 | 8/31 | W59-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L15-18 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W66-42 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W42-16 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W34-27 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:93% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:66% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:85% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:89% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:85% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:83% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 32.6% | 96.4% |
| 7-1 | 41.7% | 73.2% |
| 6-2 | 20.3% | 13.3% |
| 5-3 | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 65.4% (+0.8%) | 64.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 64.8% (+0.2%) | 64.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 64.3% (-0.3%) | 65.9% (+1.4%) | |
| 64.6% (-0.0%) | 64.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 63.7% (-0.9%) | 72.0% (+7.5%) | |
| 64.4% (-0.2%) | 64.8% (+0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Stanford
Syracuse
Virginia
Wake ForestCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Wake ForestCCG: 72.0% • Scenario: 10.6%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
96.4%
32.6%Any 1 loss
73.2%
41.7%
79.5%
3.8%75.5%
2.4%
74.4%
6.9%72.6%
5.8%
72.5%
17.1%
69.1%
5.6%Any 2 losses
13.3%
20.3%21.6%
0.3%19.9%
0.7%17.9%
0.8%17.7%
1.3%15.6%
0.5%15.3%
0.6%13.8%
1.3%13.7%
2.1%13.1%
1.1%13.1%
0.5%12.7%
3.6%12.2%
0.4%10.9%
2.9%10.8%
1.0%10.7%
3.0%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06