Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W34-13 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W31-30 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L13-27 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W43-24 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W24-14 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:20% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:7% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:46% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:29% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:2% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:15% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:16% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.1% | 83.9% |
| 6-2 | 1.7% | 16.3% |
| 5-3 | 9.9% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 28.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 39.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 20.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.4% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.3%) | 1.6% (+1.2%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.0%) | 0.6% (+0.2%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Stanford
SyracuseVirginia
Pittsburgh
North CarolinaCCG: 7.7% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
VirginiaCCG: 1.6% • Scenario: 20.1%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
<0.1%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
76.1%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%
82.3%
<0.1%
81.0%
<0.1%
76.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
16.3%
1.6%41.2%
<0.1%36.1%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%33.9%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%22.3%
0.2%18.2%
<0.1%18.1%
0.3%17.1%
<0.1%17.0%
<0.1%14.1%
0.1%8.6%
0.2%6.1%
0.3%6.1%
0.1%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06